Football · Chile Primera B · 14/08, 02:30

Prediction: Curico Unido vs Club Deportes Santa Cruz

Team pages: Curico Unido · Club Deportes Santa Cruz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Curico Unido1.41

Club Deportes Santa Cruz1.06

1X2

44% 28% 27%

Curico Unido Draw Club Deportes Santa Cruz

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Curico Unido 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDDLDWD

Club Deportes Santa Cruz 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWLLLD

Head-to-head

Curico Unido 1–1–4 Club Deportes Santa Cruz (6 last)

Club Deportes Santa Cruz4-2Curico Unido
Club Deportes Santa Cruz2-0Curico Unido
Curico Unido2-3Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Curico Unido0-0Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Club Deportes Santa Cruz0-2Curico Unido
Club Deportes Santa Cruz1-0Curico Unido

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Curico Unido 1516 · Club Deportes Santa Cruz 1511

	Curico Unido	Draw	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	44%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Club Deportes Santa Cruz: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Curico Unido	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	2.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	4.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.20

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.06
X	3.30 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	3.75 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.40 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:53 +16’	1.80	3.30	3.75
13:14 +1’	2.00▲	3.20▼	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:12	2.06	3.15	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Curico Unido 1–1–4 Club Deportes Santa Cruz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	4-2 HT 2-0	Curico Unido
24/08/25 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	2-0 HT 1-0	Curico Unido
18/04/25 Chile Primera B	Curico Unido	2-3 HT 2-1	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
05/04/25 Chile Cup	Curico Unido	0-0 HT 0-0	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
03/02/25 Chile Cup	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	0-2 HT 0-2	Curico Unido
27/07/24 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	1-0 HT 1-0	Curico Unido

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cobreloa	18	9	7	2	35	20	34
2	Santiago Wanderers	18	9	6	3	35	20	33
3	San Marcos De Arica	18	7	9	2	23	13	30
4	Puerto Montt	19	9	3	7	21	19	30
5	CD Antofagasta	18	8	5	5	32	20	29
6	San Luis Quillota	18	7	7	4	28	24	28
7	Magallanes	18	8	4	6	31	31	28
8	Union Espanola	19	8	4	7	26	26	28
9	Deportes Copiapo	18	7	6	5	26	25	27
10	Deportes Temuco	18	6	5	7	30	27	23
11	Deportes Recoleta	18	6	5	7	25	27	23
12	Curico Unido	18	4	8	6	17	26	20
13	Deportes Iquique	18	3	9	6	22	25	18
14	Union San Felipe	18	4	5	9	14	34	17
15	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	18	2	7	9	22	33	13
16	Rangers de Talca	18	0	6	12	12	29	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Curico Unido	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Rangers de Talca	0-0 D	1-0 W
Cobreloa	0-0 D	2-4 L
CD Antofagasta	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Curico Unido (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Curico Unido

DWWWDDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
05/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Cup	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
01/08	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
25/07	San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
05/07	Nublense Chile Cup	0-0	2-2	1	6	D
28/06	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Cup	2-2	2-2	4	5	D
21/06	Nublense Chile Cup	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
09/06	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
02/06	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
23/05	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	2	2	D

Club Deportes Santa Cruz

DDWWDWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
02/08	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-1	1-3	6	6	L
25/07	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	1-2	2-4	11	4	L
11/07	Palestino Chile Cup	0-1	2-3	3	8	L
05/07	Audax Italiano Chile Cup	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
27/06	Palestino Chile Cup	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
20/06	Audax Italiano Chile Cup	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
07/06	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
02/06	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
24/05	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	0-1	1-1	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Curico Unido vs Club Deportes Santa Cruz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Curico Unido win (44%). Probabilities: Curico Unido 44%, draw 28%, Club Deportes Santa Cruz 27%.

How many goals are expected in Curico Unido vs Club Deportes Santa Cruz?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Curico Unido 1.41 · Club Deportes Santa Cruz 1.06), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Club Deportes Santa Cruz?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.