Football · Chile Primera B · 22/08, 23:30

Prediction: Cobreloa vs Union Espanola

Team pages: Cobreloa · Union Espanola

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Cobreloa1.85

Union Espanola1.1

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Cobreloa Draw Union Espanola

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cobreloa 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWDDDW

Union Espanola 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDDWLLWW

Head-to-head

Cobreloa 1–2–2 Union Espanola (5 last)

Union Espanola1-1Cobreloa
Union Espanola3-0Cobreloa
Cobreloa1-0Union Espanola
Cobreloa1-1Union Espanola
Union Espanola2-1Cobreloa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cobreloa 1550 · Union Espanola 1489

	Cobreloa	Draw	Union Espanola
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cobreloa (rating 1550 vs 1489).
H2H favours Union Espanola: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cobreloa	Union Espanola
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	2.2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 19:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.67▼	Pinn 1.69 ★
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.65
2	3.60 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.25

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
02:55 +4’	1.80	3.50	3.60
05:46 +7’	1.85▲	3.50	3.40▼
11:26 +10’	2.00▲	3.30▼	3.10▼
17:18 +7’	1.70▼	3.60▲	4.00▲
18:59 +2’	1.67▼	3.60	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:57 +2’	1.89	3.46	3.64
11:34 +2’	2.11▲	3.22▼	3.00▼
17:15 +10’	1.69▼	3.65▲	4.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cobreloa 1–2–2 Union Espanola

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Chile Primera B	Union Espanola	1-1 HT 0-0	Cobreloa
17/08/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Union Espanola	3-0 HT 0-0	Cobreloa
17/03/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Cobreloa	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Espanola
15/03/15 Chile Clausura	Cobreloa	1-1 HT 0-1	Union Espanola
19/10/14 Chile Apertura	Union Espanola	2-1 HT 0-0	Cobreloa

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cobreloa	20	10	8	2	38	22	38
2	Santiago Wanderers	20	9	8	3	36	21	35
3	San Luis Quillota	20	8	8	4	31	25	32
4	Magallanes	20	9	5	6	36	35	32
5	CD Antofagasta	20	8	7	5	33	21	31
6	Puerto Montt	20	9	4	7	22	20	31
7	Union Espanola	20	9	4	7	28	27	31
8	San Marcos De Arica	21	7	9	5	25	18	30
9	Deportes Copiapo	20	8	6	6	30	29	30
10	Deportes Recoleta	20	7	6	7	30	30	27
11	Deportes Temuco	20	6	7	7	32	29	25
12	Deportes Iquique	20	4	10	6	27	26	22
13	Curico Unido	20	4	8	8	18	32	20
14	Union San Felipe	20	5	5	10	15	35	20
15	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	20	3	7	10	24	36	16
16	Rangers de Talca	21	1	6	14	18	37	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cobreloa	Union Espanola
Union San Felipe	1-0 W	2-2 D
Magallanes	2-2 D	2-3 L
Deportes Iquique	1-1 D	2-1 W
Puerto Montt	1-1 D	1-0 W
Deportes Recoleta	2-2 D	2-1 W
Deportes Copiapo	4-1 W	1-3 L
Santiago Wanderers	1-5 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Espanola (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cobreloa

LWDWDWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
12/08	Magallanes Chile Primera B	1-1	2-2	0	5	D
08/08	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
01/08	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
25/07	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	2-1	4-2	8	4	W
06/06	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
31/05	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
21/05	Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B	1-1	2-2	10	7	D
16/05	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	2-0	4-1	7	3	W
10/05	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	1-1	1-5	2	10	L

Union Espanola

WWLDDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
12/08	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
08/08	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
02/08	Magallanes Chile Primera B	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
28/07	Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
09/06	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
30/05	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	2-1	2-2	2	7	D
26/05	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	1-3	1-3	3	2	L
19/05	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
09/05	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cobreloa vs Union Espanola?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cobreloa win (54%). Probabilities: Cobreloa 54%, draw 25%, Union Espanola 21%.

How many goals are expected in Cobreloa vs Union Espanola?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Cobreloa 1.85 · Union Espanola 1.1), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cobreloa vs Union Espanola?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.