Football · Chile Primera B · 11/10, 17:30
Prediction: CD Antofagasta vs San Marcos De Arica
Team pages: CD Antofagasta · San Marcos De Arica
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
CD Antofagasta1.63
San Marcos De Arica1.11
1X2
CD Antofagasta
Draw
San Marcos De Arica
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
CD Antofagasta
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
San Marcos De Arica
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Antofagasta
1–3–2
San Marcos De Arica
(6 last)
- San Marcos De Arica1-1CD Antofagasta
- San Marcos De Arica0-0CD Antofagasta
- CD Antofagasta2-3San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica1-1CD Antofagasta
- CD Antofagasta2-1San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica4-3CD Antofagasta
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Antofagasta 1578 · San Marcos De Arica 1477
| CD Antofagasta | Draw | San Marcos De Arica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Antofagasta (rating 1578 vs 1477).
- H2H favours San Marcos De Arica: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Antofagasta | San Marcos De Arica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.5 | 2.4 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Antofagasta 1–3–2 San Marcos De Arica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 1-1 HT 0-0 | CD Antofagasta |
| 31/08/25 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CD Antofagasta |
| 27/04/25 Chile Primera B | CD Antofagasta | 2-3 HT 2-1 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 06/08/24 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 1-1 HT 1-0 | CD Antofagasta |
| 24/03/24 Chile Primera B | CD Antofagasta | 2-1 HT 0-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 09/10/23 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 4-3 HT 2-3 | CD Antofagasta |
Standings · Chile Primera B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 44 | 27 | 48 |
| 2 | San Luis Quillota | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 41 | 29 | 47 |
| 3 | Magallanes | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 39 | 46 |
| 4 | Santiago Wanderers | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 42 | 30 | 44 |
| 5 | CD Antofagasta | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 44 | 26 | 41 |
| 6 | Deportes Recoleta | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 36 | 41 |
| 7 | San Marcos De Arica | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 33 | 24 | 39 |
| 8 | Deportes Copiapo | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 39 | 37 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 34 | 36 |
| 10 | Deportes Temuco | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 42 | 37 | 35 |
| 11 | Puerto Montt | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 34 | 34 |
| 12 | Deportes Iquique | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 35 | 30 | 31 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 40 | 27 |
| 14 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 27 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 28 | 42 | 22 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 44 | 22 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 42 | 18 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Antofagasta | San Marcos De Arica |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers de Talca | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Cobreloa | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Deportes Recoleta | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Deportes Copiapo | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Deportes Iquique | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Santiago Wanderers | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Union Espanola | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Union San Felipe | 5-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: CD Antofagasta (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Antofagasta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 15/09 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 11/09 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 17/08 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 13/08 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
San Marcos De Arica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Curico Unido Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 09/09 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 06/09 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 01/09 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 13/08 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 01/08 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Antofagasta vs San Marcos De Arica?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Antofagasta win (48%). Probabilities: CD Antofagasta 48%, draw 27%, San Marcos De Arica 25%.
How many goals are expected in CD Antofagasta vs San Marcos De Arica?
The model expects 2.74 goals (CD Antofagasta 1.63 · San Marcos De Arica 1.11), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Antofagasta vs San Marcos De Arica?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.