Football · Chile Primera B · 17/10, 20:00

Prediction: Cobreloa vs Deportes Recoleta

Team pages: Cobreloa · Deportes Recoleta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Cobreloa1.58

Deportes Recoleta0.93

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Cobreloa Draw Deportes Recoleta

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cobreloa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLWLDWWL

Deportes Recoleta 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWWDWL

Head-to-head

Cobreloa 5–1–0 Deportes Recoleta (6 last)

Deportes Recoleta2-2Cobreloa
Cobreloa4-0Deportes Recoleta
Deportes Recoleta0-1Cobreloa
Deportes Recoleta1-2Cobreloa
Cobreloa3-0Deportes Recoleta
Deportes Recoleta0-1Cobreloa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cobreloa 1494 · Deportes Recoleta 1527

	Cobreloa	Draw	Deportes Recoleta
Our model	51%	28%	21%
Market	53%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cobreloa: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cobreloa	Deportes Recoleta
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/90/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	3.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.6	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.60

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.65
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.34 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:16 +6’	1.70	3.60	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:22 +8’	1.68	3.76	4.34
00:45 +31’	1.69▲	3.70▼	4.34
02:23 +55’	1.70▲	3.65▼	4.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cobreloa 5–1–0 Deportes Recoleta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/26 Chile Primera B	Deportes Recoleta	2-2 HT 1-1	Cobreloa
14/09/25 Chile Primera B	Cobreloa	4-0 HT 1-0	Deportes Recoleta
17/05/25 Chile Primera B	Deportes Recoleta	0-1 HT 0-1	Cobreloa
08/09/23 Chile Primera B	Deportes Recoleta	1-2 HT 1-1	Cobreloa
12/05/23 Chile Primera B	Cobreloa	3-0 HT 0-0	Deportes Recoleta
15/09/22 Chile Primera B	Deportes Recoleta	0-1 HT 0-0	Cobreloa

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Luis Quillota	27	14	8	5	42	29	50
2	Cobreloa	27	13	9	5	45	29	48
3	Magallanes	27	13	7	7	44	39	46
4	CD Antofagasta	27	12	8	7	47	26	44
5	Santiago Wanderers	27	12	8	7	42	30	44
6	Deportes Recoleta	27	11	8	8	39	36	41
7	Deportes Copiapo	27	11	7	9	42	40	40
8	San Marcos De Arica	27	10	9	8	33	27	39
9	Union Espanola	27	10	6	11	32	35	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	9	8	10	42	37	35
11	Deportes Iquique	27	8	10	9	36	30	34
12	Puerto Montt	27	10	4	13	26	35	34
13	Curico Unido	27	7	9	11	24	40	27
14	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	27	4	10	13	28	42	22
15	Union San Felipe	27	5	7	15	16	48	22
16	Rangers de Talca	27	5	6	16	27	42	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cobreloa	Deportes Recoleta
Deportes Copiapo	1-2 L	2-1 W
Deportes Temuco	1-0 W	1-1 D
Santiago Wanderers	1-0 W	2-1 W
CD Antofagasta	0-0 D	2-1 W
San Marcos De Arica	2-0 W	2-1 W
Union San Felipe	1-0 W	0-0 D
Magallanes	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cobreloa (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cobreloa

DDWLWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
03/10	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
26/09	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
11/09	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
05/09	San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B	0-2	2-4	7	7	L
01/09	San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
22/08	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
16/08	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
12/08	Magallanes Chile Primera B	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	3	2	D

Deportes Recoleta

DWDWDWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Magallanes Chile Primera B	1-1	1-2	9	6	L
03/10	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	2-0	2-1	5	6	W
14/09	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/09	San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B	0-1	2-1	7	0	W
06/09	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
22/08	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
18/08	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/08	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	1-1	4-2	8	6	W
08/08	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	6	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cobreloa vs Deportes Recoleta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cobreloa win (52%). Probabilities: Cobreloa 52%, draw 26%, Deportes Recoleta 22%.

How many goals are expected in Cobreloa vs Deportes Recoleta?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Cobreloa 1.58 · Deportes Recoleta 0.93), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cobreloa vs Deportes Recoleta?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.