Football · Chile Primera B · 18/10, 20:00
Prediction: San Marcos De Arica vs Puerto Montt
Team pages: San Marcos De Arica · Puerto Montt
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
San Marcos De Arica1.54
Puerto Montt0.78
1X2
San Marcos De Arica
Draw
Puerto Montt
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
San Marcos De Arica
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Puerto Montt
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Marcos De Arica
2–3–1
Puerto Montt
(6 last)
- Puerto Montt0-2San Marcos De Arica
- Puerto Montt1-1San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica2-0Puerto Montt
- San Marcos De Arica1-2Puerto Montt
- Puerto Montt2-2San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica0-0Puerto Montt
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Marcos De Arica 1484 · Puerto Montt 1406
| San Marcos De Arica | Draw | Puerto Montt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Marcos De Arica (rating 1484 vs 1406).
- H2H favours San Marcos De Arica: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Marcos De Arica | Puerto Montt | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.5 | 0.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5 | 2.4 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.6 | 4.1 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Marcos De Arica 2–3–1 Puerto Montt
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Chile Primera B | Puerto Montt | 0-2 HT 0-2 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 24/09/23 Chile Primera B | Puerto Montt | 1-1 HT 0-1 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 14/05/23 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Puerto Montt |
| 23/10/21 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Puerto Montt |
| 15/07/21 Chile Primera B | Puerto Montt | 2-2 HT 1-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 22/12/20 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Puerto Montt |
Standings · Chile Primera B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Luis Quillota | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 42 | 29 | 50 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 45 | 29 | 48 |
| 3 | Magallanes | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 39 | 46 |
| 4 | CD Antofagasta | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 26 | 44 |
| 5 | Santiago Wanderers | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 42 | 30 | 44 |
| 6 | Deportes Recoleta | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 36 | 41 |
| 7 | Deportes Copiapo | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 40 |
| 8 | San Marcos De Arica | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 39 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 35 | 36 |
| 10 | Deportes Temuco | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 42 | 37 | 35 |
| 11 | Deportes Iquique | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 36 | 30 | 34 |
| 12 | Puerto Montt | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 35 | 34 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 40 | 27 |
| 14 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 27 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 28 | 42 | 22 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 16 | 48 | 22 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 42 | 21 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Marcos De Arica | Puerto Montt |
|---|---|---|
| Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Curico Unido | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Deportes Copiapo | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Rangers de Talca | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Union Espanola | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Santiago Wanderers | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: San Marcos De Arica (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Marcos De Arica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 04/10 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Curico Unido Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 09/09 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 06/09 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 01/09 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 13/08 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
Puerto Montt
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 08/09 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Curico Unido Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 16/08 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 12/08 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Marcos De Arica vs Puerto Montt?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Marcos De Arica win (55%). Probabilities: San Marcos De Arica 55%, draw 27%, Puerto Montt 18%.
How many goals are expected in San Marcos De Arica vs Puerto Montt?
The model expects 2.32 goals (San Marcos De Arica 1.54 · Puerto Montt 0.78), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in San Marcos De Arica vs Puerto Montt?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.