Football · Chile Primera B · 18/10, 22:00

Prediction: Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs CD Antofagasta

Team pages: Club Deportes Santa Cruz · CD Antofagasta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Club Deportes Santa Cruz0.91

CD Antofagasta1.28

1X2

27% 29% 45%

Club Deportes Santa Cruz Draw CD Antofagasta

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Deportes Santa Cruz 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDDWDLL

CD Antofagasta 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLDLWW

Head-to-head

Club Deportes Santa Cruz 3–1–2 CD Antofagasta (6 last)

CD Antofagasta1-1Club Deportes Santa Cruz
CD Antofagasta2-1Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Club Deportes Santa Cruz3-0CD Antofagasta
CD Antofagasta3-2Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Club Deportes Santa Cruz2-1CD Antofagasta
Club Deportes Santa Cruz1-0CD Antofagasta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Deportes Santa Cruz 1443 · CD Antofagasta 1571

	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	Draw	CD Antofagasta
Our model	25%	31%	44%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Antofagasta (rating 1443 vs 1571).
H2H favours Club Deportes Santa Cruz: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	CD Antofagasta
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.9	1.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.5	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.47 ★
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	2.10 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:14 +21’	3.00	3.30	2.10
01:11 +13’	3.25▲	3.40▲	1.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:25 +17’	3.47	3.29	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Deportes Santa Cruz 3–1–2 CD Antofagasta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Chile Primera B	CD Antofagasta	1-1 HT 1-0	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
02/11/25 Chile Primera B	CD Antofagasta	2-1 HT 2-1	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
22/06/25 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	3-0 HT 0-0	CD Antofagasta
08/09/24 Chile Primera B	CD Antofagasta	3-2 HT 1-1	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
27/04/24 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	2-1 HT 2-0	CD Antofagasta
14/09/23 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Antofagasta

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Luis Quillota	27	14	8	5	42	29	50
2	Cobreloa	27	13	9	5	45	29	48
3	Magallanes	27	13	7	7	44	39	46
4	CD Antofagasta	27	12	8	7	47	26	44
5	Santiago Wanderers	27	12	8	7	42	30	44
6	Deportes Recoleta	27	11	8	8	39	36	41
7	Deportes Copiapo	27	11	7	9	42	40	40
8	San Marcos De Arica	27	10	9	8	33	27	39
9	Union Espanola	27	10	6	11	32	35	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	9	8	10	42	37	35
11	Deportes Iquique	27	8	10	9	36	30	34
12	Puerto Montt	27	10	4	13	26	35	34
13	Curico Unido	27	7	9	11	24	40	27
14	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	27	4	10	13	28	42	22
15	Union San Felipe	27	5	7	15	16	48	22
16	Rangers de Talca	27	5	6	16	27	42	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	CD Antofagasta
Deportes Temuco	1-2 L	3-1 W
San Marcos De Arica	1-2 L	3-0 W
Deportes Recoleta	0-0 D	1-2 L
Deportes Iquique	1-0 W	1-1 D
Union Espanola	1-1 D	3-0 W
San Luis Quillota	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Antofagasta (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Deportes Santa Cruz

DWLLDDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
04/10	San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B	1-2	1-2	6	5	L
14/09	Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
10/09	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	6	11	W
05/09	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
29/08	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
22/08	Magallanes Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
18/08	San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
14/08	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
08/08	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

CD Antofagasta

WDDWWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
04/10	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	0-0	2-0	11	1	W
15/09	San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
11/09	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
06/09	Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
30/08	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	1-0	4-0	3	2	W
23/08	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	2-0	3-1	1	8	W
17/08	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
13/08	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
08/08	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	1-0	3-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs CD Antofagasta?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Antofagasta win (45%). Probabilities: Club Deportes Santa Cruz 27%, draw 29%, CD Antofagasta 45%.

How many goals are expected in Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs CD Antofagasta?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Club Deportes Santa Cruz 0.91 · CD Antofagasta 1.28), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs CD Antofagasta?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.