Football · Chile Primera B · 12/10, 17:30

Prediction: Puerto Montt vs San Luis Quillota

Team pages: Puerto Montt · San Luis Quillota

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Puerto Montt1.13

San Luis Quillota1.35

1X2

31% 28% 41%

Puerto Montt Draw San Luis Quillota

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Puerto Montt 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLDLLWLLL

San Luis Quillota 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Puerto Montt 2–2–2 San Luis Quillota (6 last)

San Luis Quillota4-1Puerto Montt
San Luis Quillota0-0Puerto Montt
Puerto Montt0-1San Luis Quillota
San Luis Quillota0-3Puerto Montt
Puerto Montt1-1San Luis Quillota
San Luis Quillota0-1Puerto Montt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Puerto Montt 1429 · San Luis Quillota 1572

	Puerto Montt	Draw	San Luis Quillota
Our model	30%	29%	40%
Market	31%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Luis Quillota (rating 1429 vs 1572).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Puerto Montt	San Luis Quillota
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.6	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	3.2 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.5	4.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.25

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.88▲	Pinn 2.90
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.31
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.25 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:38 +8’	2.80	3.25	2.15
13:42 +13’	2.88▲	3.25	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:55 +111’	3.05	3.35	2.15
05:29 +7’	2.90▼	3.31▼	2.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Puerto Montt 2–2–2 San Luis Quillota

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Chile Primera B	San Luis Quillota	4-1 HT 2-1	Puerto Montt
20/08/23 Chile Primera B	San Luis Quillota	0-0 HT 0-0	Puerto Montt
15/04/23 Chile Primera B	Puerto Montt	0-1 HT 0-0	San Luis Quillota
08/09/22 Chile Primera B	San Luis Quillota	0-3 HT 0-0	Puerto Montt
22/04/22 Chile Primera B	Puerto Montt	1-1 HT 0-1	San Luis Quillota
01/09/21 Chile Primera B	San Luis Quillota	0-1 HT 0-1	Puerto Montt

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cobreloa	26	13	9	4	44	27	48
2	San Luis Quillota	26	13	8	5	41	29	47
3	Magallanes	27	13	7	7	44	39	46
4	Santiago Wanderers	27	12	8	7	42	30	44
5	CD Antofagasta	26	11	8	7	44	26	41
6	Deportes Recoleta	27	11	8	8	39	36	41
7	San Marcos De Arica	26	10	9	7	33	24	39
8	Deportes Copiapo	26	10	7	9	40	39	37
9	Union Espanola	26	10	6	10	32	34	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	9	8	10	42	37	35
11	Puerto Montt	26	10	4	12	26	34	34
12	Deportes Iquique	26	7	10	9	35	30	31
13	Curico Unido	27	7	9	11	24	40	27
14	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	27	4	10	13	28	42	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	5	7	14	16	44	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	4	6	16	23	42	18

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Puerto Montt	San Luis Quillota
Deportes Copiapo	0-3 L	1-1 D
Rangers de Talca	1-2 L	1-1 D
Deportes Temuco	1-3 L	1-1 D
Deportes Iquique	0-4 L	1-0 W
Santiago Wanderers	1-1 D	0-1 L
Union Espanola	0-1 L	2-0 W
Club Deportes Santa Cruz	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: San Luis Quillota (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Puerto Montt

WDLDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
13/09	Magallanes Chile Primera B	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
08/09	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
05/09	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
30/08	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	1-0	1-3	2	7	L
22/08	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-2	0-4	6	6	L
16/08	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
12/08	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
08/08	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
02/08	Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

San Luis Quillota

DDDWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/09	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
15/09	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
05/09	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	2-0	4-2	3	7	W
30/08	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
25/08	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-1	0-1	13	5	L
18/08	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
14/08	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	0-1	1-1	9	6	D
09/08	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	10	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Puerto Montt vs San Luis Quillota?

According to our model, the most likely result is an San Luis Quillota win (41%). Probabilities: Puerto Montt 31%, draw 28%, San Luis Quillota 41%.

How many goals are expected in Puerto Montt vs San Luis Quillota?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Puerto Montt 1.13 · San Luis Quillota 1.35), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Puerto Montt vs San Luis Quillota?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.