Football · Chile Primera B · 10/10, 17:30

Prediction: Deportes Recoleta vs Magallanes

Team pages: Deportes Recoleta · Magallanes

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Deportes Recoleta1.45

Magallanes1.35

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Deportes Recoleta Draw Magallanes

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Recoleta 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LDWDWDWWDW

Magallanes 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLDDWW

Head-to-head

Deportes Recoleta 1–1–4 Magallanes (6 last)

Magallanes3-2Deportes Recoleta
Deportes Recoleta2-0Magallanes
Magallanes2-0Deportes Recoleta
Magallanes3-0Deportes Recoleta
Deportes Recoleta0-1Magallanes
Magallanes1-1Deportes Recoleta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Recoleta 1526 · Magallanes 1561

	Deportes Recoleta	Draw	Magallanes
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Magallanes: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Recoleta	Magallanes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.8	2.2 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.25

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.35
X	3.30 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.30
2	2.80 → 2.60▼	Pinn 2.75 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:26 +4’	2.15	3.30	2.80
11:45 +4’	2.25▲	3.30	2.70▼
14:02 +11’	2.30▲	3.25▼	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:43 +227’	2.35	3.32	2.74
17:55 +328’	2.36▲	3.29▼	2.75▲
08:27 +55’	2.35▼	3.30▲	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Recoleta 1–1–4 Magallanes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Chile Primera B	Magallanes	3-2 HT 2-0	Deportes Recoleta
13/07/25 Chile Primera B	Deportes Recoleta	2-0 HT 1-0	Magallanes
23/03/25 Chile Cup	Magallanes	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportes Recoleta
22/02/25 Chile Primera B	Magallanes	3-0 HT 3-0	Deportes Recoleta
09/02/25 Chile Cup	Deportes Recoleta	0-1 HT 0-0	Magallanes
03/10/24 Chile Primera B	Magallanes	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportes Recoleta

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cobreloa	26	13	9	4	44	27	48
2	San Luis Quillota	26	13	8	5	41	29	47
3	Santiago Wanderers	26	12	8	6	41	28	44
4	Magallanes	26	12	7	7	42	38	43
5	CD Antofagasta	26	11	8	7	44	26	41
6	Deportes Recoleta	26	11	8	7	38	34	41
7	San Marcos De Arica	26	10	9	7	33	24	39
8	Deportes Copiapo	26	10	7	9	40	39	37
9	Union Espanola	26	10	6	10	32	34	36
10	Puerto Montt	26	10	4	12	26	34	34
11	Deportes Temuco	26	8	8	10	40	36	32
12	Deportes Iquique	26	7	10	9	35	30	31
13	Curico Unido	26	6	9	11	22	39	24
14	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	26	4	10	12	27	40	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	5	7	14	16	44	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	4	6	16	23	42	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportes Recoleta	Magallanes
Santiago Wanderers	2-1 W	1-2 L
Club Deportes Santa Cruz	0-0 D	1-0 W
Curico Unido	0-0 D	1-0 W
Deportes Copiapo	2-1 W	1-1 D
Deportes Temuco	1-1 D	4-3 W
Rangers de Talca	4-2 W	3-2 W
Union San Felipe	0-0 D	0-0 D
Puerto Montt	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Magallanes (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportes Recoleta

LDWDWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	2-0	2-1	5	6	W
14/09	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/09	San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B	0-1	2-1	7	0	W
06/09	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
22/08	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
18/08	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/08	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	1-1	4-2	8	6	W
08/08	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
02/08	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-1	0-1	10	5	L

Magallanes

WWDWWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
13/09	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
10/09	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
05/09	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
29/08	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
22/08	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
15/08	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	1-2	3-2	3	8	W
12/08	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
09/08	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	1-2	4-3	5	2	W
02/08	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	2-1	3-2	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Recoleta vs Magallanes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Recoleta win (39%). Probabilities: Deportes Recoleta 39%, draw 27%, Magallanes 34%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Recoleta vs Magallanes?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Deportes Recoleta 1.45 · Magallanes 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Recoleta vs Magallanes?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.