Football · Chile Primera B · 16/08, 02:00
Prediction: Union Espanola vs San Marcos De Arica
Team pages: Union Espanola · San Marcos De Arica
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.44Total
Union Espanola1.29
San Marcos De Arica1.14
1X2
Union Espanola
Draw
San Marcos De Arica
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Union Espanola
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
San Marcos De Arica
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Espanola
0–2–3
San Marcos De Arica
(5 last)
- San Marcos De Arica2-0Union Espanola
- Union Espanola1-1San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica1-1Union Espanola
- Union Espanola1-2San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica2-1Union Espanola
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Espanola 1454 · San Marcos De Arica 1432
| Union Espanola | Draw | San Marcos De Arica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 30% | 32% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours San Marcos De Arica: 3-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Espanola | San Marcos De Arica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.5 | 2.3 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Espanola 0–2–3 San Marcos De Arica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Union Espanola |
| 05/04/16 Chile Clausura | Union Espanola | 1-1 HT 0-1 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 31/10/15 Chile Apertura | San Marcos De Arica | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Union Espanola |
| 18/01/15 Chile Clausura | Union Espanola | 1-2 HT 0-2 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 03/08/14 Chile Apertura | San Marcos De Arica | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Union Espanola |
Standings · Chile Primera B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 37 | 22 | 35 |
| 2 | Santiago Wanderers | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 35 | 20 | 34 |
| 3 | CD Antofagasta | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 30 |
| 4 | San Marcos De Arica | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 30 |
| 5 | Puerto Montt | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 30 |
| 6 | San Luis Quillota | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 | 25 | 29 |
| 7 | Magallanes | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 33 | 29 |
| 8 | Union Espanola | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportes Copiapo | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 29 | 27 |
| 10 | Deportes Recoleta | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 26 |
| 11 | Deportes Temuco | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | Deportes Iquique | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 21 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 28 | 20 |
| 14 | Union San Felipe | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 34 | 20 |
| 15 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 34 | 16 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 19 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 6 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Espanola | San Marcos De Arica |
|---|---|---|
| Magallanes | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Union San Felipe | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Santiago Wanderers | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Espanola
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 28/07 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | O'Higgins Chile Cup |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 30/06 | Colo Colo Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/06 | O'Higgins Chile Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 09/06 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 26/05 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
1-3 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
San Marcos De Arica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 06/08 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 12 | W |
| 06/07 | Deportes Limache Chile Cup |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 27/06 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Deportes Limache Chile Cup |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Espanola vs San Marcos De Arica?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Espanola win (39%). Probabilities: Union Espanola 39%, draw 29%, San Marcos De Arica 32%.
How many goals are expected in Union Espanola vs San Marcos De Arica?
The model expects 2.44 goals (Union Espanola 1.29 · San Marcos De Arica 1.14), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs San Marcos De Arica?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.