Football · Chile Primera B · 01/09, 02:00
Prediction: Cobreloa vs San Marcos De Arica
Team pages: Cobreloa · San Marcos De Arica
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
Cobreloa1.45
San Marcos De Arica1.04
1X2
Cobreloa
Draw
San Marcos De Arica
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Cobreloa
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
San Marcos De Arica
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cobreloa
2–2–2
San Marcos De Arica
(6 last)
- San Marcos De Arica2-1Cobreloa
- Cobreloa3-1San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica2-1Cobreloa
- Cobreloa2-0San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica1-1Cobreloa
- Cobreloa0-0San Marcos De Arica
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cobreloa 1527 · San Marcos De Arica 1417
| Cobreloa | Draw | San Marcos De Arica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cobreloa (rating 1527 vs 1417).
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cobreloa | San Marcos De Arica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.9 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 4.9 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cobreloa 2–2–2 San Marcos De Arica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Cobreloa |
| 01/12/25 Chile Primera B | Cobreloa | 3-1 HT 3-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 26/11/25 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Cobreloa |
| 19/07/25 Chile Primera B | Cobreloa | 2-0 HT 1-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 02/03/25 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Cobreloa |
| 29/06/24 Chile Cup | Cobreloa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
Standings · Chile Primera B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Wanderers | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 37 | 21 | 38 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 38 | 23 | 38 |
| 3 | Magallanes | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 35 | 35 |
| 4 | CD Antofagasta | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 22 | 34 |
| 5 | Union Espanola | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 34 |
| 6 | San Luis Quillota | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 32 |
| 7 | Puerto Montt | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 31 |
| 8 | San Marcos De Arica | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
| 9 | Deportes Recoleta | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 30 |
| 10 | Deportes Copiapo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 30 |
| 11 | Deportes Iquique | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 31 | 26 | 25 |
| 12 | Deportes Temuco | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 33 | 32 | 25 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 32 | 20 |
| 14 | Union San Felipe | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 37 | 20 |
| 15 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 37 | 16 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 21 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 37 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cobreloa | San Marcos De Arica |
|---|---|---|
| Union Espanola | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Union San Felipe | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Magallanes | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Deportes Iquique | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Puerto Montt | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Rangers de Talca | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cobreloa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 12/08 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 01/08 | Curico Unido Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 25/07 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
2-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 21/05 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
San Marcos De Arica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 13/08 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 01/08 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 12 | W |
| 06/06 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cobreloa vs San Marcos De Arica?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cobreloa win (46%). Probabilities: Cobreloa 46%, draw 28%, San Marcos De Arica 26%.
How many goals are expected in Cobreloa vs San Marcos De Arica?
The model expects 2.49 goals (Cobreloa 1.45 · San Marcos De Arica 1.04), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cobreloa vs San Marcos De Arica?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.