Football · Chile Primera B · 12/10, 22:30

Prediction: Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola

Team pages: Deportes Iquique · Union Espanola

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Deportes Iquique1.64

Union Espanola1.11

1X2

49% 26% 25%

Deportes Iquique Draw Union Espanola

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Iquique 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDWLLLWW

Union Espanola 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLDLDL

Head-to-head

Deportes Iquique 1–2–3 Union Espanola (6 last)

Union Espanola2-1Deportes Iquique
Union Espanola2-2Deportes Iquique
Deportes Iquique0-4Union Espanola
Deportes Iquique2-0Union Espanola
Union Espanola4-3Deportes Iquique
Deportes Iquique1-1Union Espanola

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Iquique 1510 · Union Espanola 1473

	Deportes Iquique	Draw	Union Espanola
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Espanola: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Iquique	Union Espanola
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.7	3.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.83▼	Pinn 1.86
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.87 ★
2	3.00 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:51 +5’	2.10	3.40	3.00
13:41 +26’	1.83▼	3.50▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:52 +125’	1.93	3.77	3.24
11:37 +150’	1.92▼	3.83▲	3.23▼
17:39 +210’	1.88▼	3.85▲	3.31▲
07:13 +8’	1.86▼	3.87▲	3.37▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Iquique 1–2–3 Union Espanola

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/05/26 Chile Primera B	Union Espanola	2-1 HT 0-1	Deportes Iquique
15/08/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Union Espanola	2-2 HT 1-1	Deportes Iquique
17/03/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Deportes Iquique	0-4 HT 0-1	Union Espanola
09/11/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Deportes Iquique	2-0 HT 1-0	Union Espanola
01/06/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Union Espanola	4-3 HT 4-0	Deportes Iquique
08/12/20 Chile Liga de Primera	Deportes Iquique	1-1 HT 0-0	Union Espanola

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cobreloa	26	13	9	4	44	27	48
2	San Luis Quillota	26	13	8	5	41	29	47
3	Magallanes	27	13	7	7	44	39	46
4	Santiago Wanderers	27	12	8	7	42	30	44
5	CD Antofagasta	26	11	8	7	44	26	41
6	Deportes Recoleta	27	11	8	8	39	36	41
7	San Marcos De Arica	26	10	9	7	33	24	39
8	Deportes Copiapo	26	10	7	9	40	39	37
9	Union Espanola	26	10	6	10	32	34	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	9	8	10	42	37	35
11	Puerto Montt	26	10	4	12	26	34	34
12	Deportes Iquique	26	7	10	9	35	30	31
13	Curico Unido	27	7	9	11	24	40	27
14	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	27	4	10	13	28	42	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	5	7	14	16	44	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	4	6	16	23	42	18

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportes Iquique	Union Espanola
Rangers de Talca	2-1 W	0-1 L
Club Deportes Santa Cruz	0-1 L	1-1 D
San Luis Quillota	0-1 L	0-2 L
Puerto Montt	4-0 W	1-0 W
CD Antofagasta	1-1 D	0-3 L
Cobreloa	1-1 D	1-0 W
San Marcos De Arica	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Deportes Iquique (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportes Iquique

DDWDWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
15/09	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
10/09	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	6	11	L
05/09	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
30/08	San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
22/08	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	2-0	4-0	2	6	W
17/08	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
14/08	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	1-0	4-0	0	2	W
08/08	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
01/08	San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	4	4	D

Union Espanola

LLWWWLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
16/09	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
09/09	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
05/09	Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
29/08	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	9	6	L
22/08	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
16/08	San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
12/08	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
08/08	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
02/08	Magallanes Chile Primera B	1-2	2-3	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Iquique win (49%). Probabilities: Deportes Iquique 49%, draw 26%, Union Espanola 25%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Deportes Iquique 1.64 · Union Espanola 1.11), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.