Football · Australia South Australia State League 1 · 15/08, 09:30

Prediction: South Adelaide vs Adelaide Atletico

Team pages: South Adelaide · Adelaide Atletico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

South Adelaide1.37

Adelaide Atletico2.26

1X2

22% 21% 57%

South Adelaide Draw Adelaide Atletico

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

South Adelaide 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLDLLW

Adelaide Atletico 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDLLWL

Head-to-head

South Adelaide 2–1–0 Adelaide Atletico (3 last)

Adelaide Atletico1-1South Adelaide
South Adelaide5-2Adelaide Atletico
Adelaide Atletico1-5South Adelaide

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Adelaide 1429 · Adelaide Atletico 1478

	South Adelaide	Draw	Adelaide Atletico
Our model	22%	22%	57%
Market	22%	21%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adelaide Atletico (rating 1429 vs 1478).
H2H favours South Adelaide: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Adelaide	Adelaide Atletico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.8	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.7	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.33

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
X	4.20 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
2	1.67 → 1.57▼	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +31’	3.60	4.20	1.67
06:15 +9’	4.00▲	4.33▲	1.57▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · South Adelaide 2–1–0 Adelaide Atletico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Atletico	1-1 HT 0-0	South Adelaide
31/10/20 Australia South Australia State League 1	South Adelaide	5-2 HT 4-1	Adelaide Atletico
14/03/20 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Atletico	1-5 HT 1-2	South Adelaide

Standings · Australia South Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	21	14	2	5	55	26	44
2	Adelaide Olympic	21	14	1	6	42	24	43
3	Modbury Jets	21	12	5	4	45	20	41
4	Fulham United FC	21	10	4	7	39	30	34
5	Cumberland United	21	11	1	9	36	27	34
6	Adelaide Blue Eagles	21	9	6	6	33	27	33
7	Adelaide Atletico	21	10	3	8	37	33	33
8	Cove	21	7	5	9	28	33	26
9	Eastern United	21	6	4	11	24	42	22
10	Adelaide Cobras	21	6	2	13	22	43	20
11	South Adelaide	21	4	3	14	25	59	15
12	Salisbury United	21	4	2	15	25	47	14

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Adelaide	Adelaide Atletico
Salisbury United	3-2 W	2-0 W
Modbury Jets	2-3 L	0-4 L
Adelaide Olympic	1-5 L	0-1 L
Cove	2-2 D	0-0 D
Adelaide Blue Eagles	1-4 L	4-0 W
Fulham United FC	0-1 L	1-4 L
Cumberland United	1-5 L	2-1 W
Adelaide Croatia Raiders	2-3 L	1-3 L
Adelaide Cobras	0-2 L	3-2 W
Eastern United	1-1 D	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 7 L	4 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Adelaide Atletico (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South Adelaide

DLLLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	2-1	3-2	4	2	W
01/08	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	1-2	2-3	5	3	L
24/07	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	1-5	9	6	L
18/07	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	2-2	10	6	D
04/07	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-3	1-4	4	3	L
27/06	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
20/06	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-4	1-5	5	2	L
13/06	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	2-3	9	2	L
06/06	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
30/05	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-1	5	4	D

Adelaide Atletico

WWLLWDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	2-4	6	4	L
01/08	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
25/07	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
18/07	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
04/07	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
27/06	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	4-0	6	7	W
20/06	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	0-3	1-3	4	6	L
13/06	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
06/06	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
30/05	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	3-2	8	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Adelaide vs Adelaide Atletico?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Adelaide Atletico win (57%). Probabilities: South Adelaide 22%, draw 21%, Adelaide Atletico 57%.

How many goals are expected in South Adelaide vs Adelaide Atletico?

The model expects 3.63 goals (South Adelaide 1.37 · Adelaide Atletico 2.26), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in South Adelaide vs Adelaide Atletico?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.