Football · Australia South Australia State League 1 · 21/08, 12:00

Prediction: Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Atletico

Team pages: Adelaide Olympic · Adelaide Atletico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Adelaide Olympic1.78

Adelaide Atletico1.32

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Adelaide Olympic Draw Adelaide Atletico

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Adelaide Olympic 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Adelaide Atletico 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Adelaide Olympic 2–1 Adelaide Atletico (3 last)

Adelaide Atletico0-1Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Olympic1-2Adelaide Atletico
Adelaide Atletico0-2Adelaide Olympic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Adelaide Olympic 1543 · Adelaide Atletico 1496

	Adelaide Olympic	Draw	Adelaide Atletico
Our model	47%	25%	27%
Market	49%	22%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adelaide Olympic (rating 1543 vs 1496).
H2H favours Adelaide Olympic: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Adelaide Olympic	Adelaide Atletico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	1.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X4.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
07:30 +14’	1.83	4.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide Olympic 2–0–1 Adelaide Atletico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Atletico	0-1 HT 0-0	Adelaide Olympic
17/04/26 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Olympic	1-2 HT 1-1	Adelaide Atletico
21/05/19 Australia FFA Cup	Adelaide Atletico	0-2 HT 0-2	Adelaide Olympic

Standings · Australia South Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	22	15	2	5	56	26	47
2	Modbury Jets	22	13	5	4	46	20	44
3	Adelaide Olympic	22	14	1	7	42	25	43
4	Fulham United FC	22	11	4	7	42	31	37
5	Adelaide Blue Eagles	22	10	6	6	35	28	36
6	Adelaide Atletico	22	11	3	8	40	34	36
7	Cumberland United	22	11	1	10	36	28	34
8	Cove	22	7	5	10	29	36	26
9	Eastern United	22	6	4	12	25	44	22
10	Adelaide Cobras	22	6	2	14	22	45	20
11	Salisbury United	22	5	2	15	27	47	17
12	South Adelaide	22	4	3	15	26	62	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Adelaide Olympic	Adelaide Atletico
Adelaide Croatia Raiders	0-1 L	1-3 L
Cumberland United	2-0 W	2-1 W
South Adelaide	5-1 W	3-1 W
Salisbury United	1-0 W	2-0 W
Modbury Jets	1-4 L	0-4 L
Cove	2-0 W	0-0 D
Eastern United	1-2 L	2-4 L
Adelaide Blue Eagles	2-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Adelaide Olympic (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Adelaide Olympic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
08/08	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
01/08	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
24/07	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	5-1	9	6	W
18/07	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
03/07	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
27/06	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	1-4	4	4	L
20/06	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
12/06	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
06/06	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-1	4	9	W

Adelaide Atletico

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
08/08	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	2-4	6	4	L
01/08	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
25/07	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
18/07	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
04/07	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
27/06	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	4-0	6	7	W
20/06	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	0-3	1-3	4	6	L
13/06	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
06/06	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-1	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Atletico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Adelaide Olympic win (48%). Probabilities: Adelaide Olympic 48%, draw 24%, Adelaide Atletico 28%.

How many goals are expected in Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Atletico?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Adelaide Olympic 1.78 · Adelaide Atletico 1.32), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Atletico?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.