Football · Australia South Australia State League 1 · 15/08, 09:30

Prediction: Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Croatia Raiders

Team pages: Adelaide Olympic · Adelaide Croatia Raiders

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Adelaide Olympic1.54

Adelaide Croatia Raiders1.77

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Adelaide Olympic Draw Adelaide Croatia Raiders

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Adelaide Olympic 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Adelaide Croatia Raiders 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Adelaide Olympic 3–2–1 Adelaide Croatia Raiders (6 last)

Adelaide Croatia Raiders3-1Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Olympic2-1Adelaide Croatia Raiders
Adelaide Croatia Raiders0-1Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Olympic2-0Adelaide Croatia Raiders
Adelaide Croatia Raiders3-3Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Olympic4-4Adelaide Croatia Raiders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Adelaide Olympic 1571 · Adelaide Croatia Raiders 1594

	Adelaide Olympic	Draw	Adelaide Croatia Raiders
Our model	33%	25%	42%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Adelaide Olympic: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Adelaide Olympic	Adelaide Croatia Raiders
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.8	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.75

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:18 +14’	2.70	3.75	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide Olympic 3–2–1 Adelaide Croatia Raiders

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	3-1 HT 2-0	Adelaide Olympic
08/06/24 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide Olympic	2-1 HT 1-0	Adelaide Croatia Raiders
08/03/24 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	0-1 HT 0-1	Adelaide Olympic
04/09/21 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide Olympic	2-0 HT 2-0	Adelaide Croatia Raiders
19/06/21 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	3-3 HT 1-2	Adelaide Olympic
29/08/20 Australia South Australia Premier League	Adelaide Olympic	4-4 HT 2-2	Adelaide Croatia Raiders

Standings · Australia South Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	21	14	2	5	55	26	44
2	Adelaide Olympic	21	14	1	6	42	24	43
3	Modbury Jets	21	12	5	4	45	20	41
4	Fulham United FC	21	10	4	7	39	30	34
5	Cumberland United	21	11	1	9	36	27	34
6	Adelaide Blue Eagles	21	9	6	6	33	27	33
7	Adelaide Atletico	21	10	3	8	37	33	33
8	Cove	21	7	5	9	28	33	26
9	Eastern United	21	6	4	11	24	42	22
10	Adelaide Cobras	21	6	2	13	22	43	20
11	South Adelaide	21	4	3	14	25	59	15
12	Salisbury United	21	4	2	15	25	47	14

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Adelaide Olympic	Adelaide Croatia Raiders
Cumberland United	2-0 W	2-1 W
Adelaide Cobras	2-0 W	7-0 W
South Adelaide	5-1 W	3-2 W
Adelaide Atletico	1-0 W	3-1 W
Salisbury United	1-0 W	3-4 L
Modbury Jets	1-4 L	3-1 W
Cove	2-0 W	4-2 W
Eastern United	1-2 L	3-0 W
Adelaide Blue Eagles	2-1 W	1-1 D
Fulham United FC	4-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 2 L	8 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Adelaide Olympic (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Adelaide Olympic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
01/08	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
24/07	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	5-1	9	6	W
18/07	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
03/07	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
27/06	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	1-4	4	4	L
20/06	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
12/06	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
06/06	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-1	4	9	W
29/05	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	4-0	9	3	W

Adelaide Croatia Raiders

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	4-2	4	5	W
01/08	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
25/07	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/07	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	3-0	8	3	W
04/07	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
27/06	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	7-0	11	1	W
20/06	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	3-0	3-1	4	6	W
13/06	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	3-2	4	2	W
06/06	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	3-4	14	1	L
30/05	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	3-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Croatia Raiders?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Adelaide Croatia Raiders win (43%). Probabilities: Adelaide Olympic 33%, draw 24%, Adelaide Croatia Raiders 43%.

How many goals are expected in Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Croatia Raiders?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Adelaide Olympic 1.54 · Adelaide Croatia Raiders 1.77), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Croatia Raiders?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.