Football · Australia South Australia State League 1 · 25/07, 07:30

Prediction: Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Atletico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Modbury Jets1.94

Adelaide Atletico1.11

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Modbury Jets Draw Adelaide Atletico

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Modbury Jets 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLDWDDLW

Adelaide Atletico 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLLWDL

Head-to-head

Modbury Jets 2–2–2 Adelaide Atletico (6 last)

Adelaide Atletico1-2Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets2-1Adelaide Atletico
Modbury Jets0-1Adelaide Atletico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Modbury Jets 1514 · Adelaide Atletico 1507

	Modbury Jets	Draw	Adelaide Atletico
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	57%	21%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Modbury Jets	Adelaide Atletico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	1.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.20

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +1’	1.57	4.20	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Modbury Jets 2–2–2 Adelaide Atletico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Atletico	1-2 HT 0-1	Modbury Jets
13/04/24 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Modbury Jets	2-1 HT 0-0	Adelaide Atletico
30/07/22 Australia South Australia State League 1	Modbury Jets	0-1 HT 0-0	Adelaide Atletico
30/04/22 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Atletico	2-2 HT 2-0	Modbury Jets
02/10/21 Australia South Australia State League 1	Modbury Jets	1-1 HT 0-0	Adelaide Atletico
04/09/21 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Atletico	2-1 HT 0-1	Modbury Jets

Standings · Australia South Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	18	12	1	5	49	23	37
2	Adelaide Olympic	18	11	1	6	33	23	34
3	Fulham United FC	18	10	3	5	38	27	33
4	Modbury Jets	18	9	5	4	34	18	32
5	Adelaide Blue Eagles	18	9	4	5	31	24	31
6	Adelaide Atletico	18	9	3	6	33	25	30
7	Cumberland United	18	9	1	8	32	24	28
8	Cove	18	7	5	6	26	26	26
9	Adelaide Cobras	18	5	2	11	21	37	17
10	Eastern United	18	4	4	10	18	36	16
11	South Adelaide	18	3	3	12	19	49	12
12	Salisbury United	18	3	2	13	20	42	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Modbury Jets	Adelaide Atletico
Salisbury United	3-2 W	2-1 W
Adelaide Blue Eagles	1-3 L	4-0 W
Cove	0-0 D	0-0 D
Eastern United	0-0 D	5-0 W
Adelaide Olympic	4-1 W	0-1 L
Fulham United FC	0-2 L	1-4 L
Adelaide Croatia Raiders	1-3 L	1-3 L
Cumberland United	0-1 L	2-1 W
Adelaide Cobras	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Modbury Jets

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	3-2	6	3	W
13/07	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
07/07	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
03/07	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
27/06	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	4-1	8	4	W
20/06	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
05/06	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
30/05	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	1-3	10	3	L
23/05	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
19/05	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-0	1	3	W

Adelaide Atletico

WWDWWLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
04/07	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
27/06	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	4-0	6	7	W
20/06	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	0-3	1-3	4	6	L
13/06	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
06/06	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
30/05	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	3-2	8	6	W
23/05	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-1	9	5	D
16/05	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	4-0	5-0	3	1	W
09/05	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	2-1	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Atletico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Modbury Jets win (56%). Probabilities: Modbury Jets 56%, draw 23%, Adelaide Atletico 21%.

How many goals are expected in Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Atletico?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Modbury Jets 1.94 · Adelaide Atletico 1.11), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Atletico?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.