Football · Australia South Australia State League 1 · 01/08, 07:30

Prediction: South Adelaide vs Modbury Jets

Team pages: South Adelaide · Modbury Jets

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

South Adelaide0.93

Modbury Jets2.5

1X2

12% 17% 71%

South Adelaide Draw Modbury Jets

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

South Adelaide 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLLLDL

Modbury Jets 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDDLWW

Head-to-head

South Adelaide 0–1–5 Modbury Jets (6 last)

Modbury Jets4-1South Adelaide
Modbury Jets3-3South Adelaide
South Adelaide0-4Modbury Jets
South Adelaide2-4Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets4-3South Adelaide
Modbury Jets4-3South Adelaide

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Adelaide 1423 · Modbury Jets 1508

	South Adelaide	Draw	Modbury Jets
Our model	11%	18%	71%
Market	12%	16%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Modbury Jets (rating 1423 vs 1508).
H2H favours Modbury Jets: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Adelaide	Modbury Jets
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.4	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

17.50

X5.50

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.82

2 (-2)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 18:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.00▼	Bet365 7.00
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.25 → 1.27▲	Bet365 1.27

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +9’	7.50	5.50	1.25
16:14 +3’	8.00▲	5.50	1.22▼
16:54 +26’	7.50▼	5.50	1.25▲
18:44 +2’	7.00▼	5.50	1.27▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · South Adelaide 0–1–5 Modbury Jets

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia South Australia State League 1	Modbury Jets	4-1 HT 2-1	South Adelaide
29/06/24 Australia South Australia Premier League	Modbury Jets	3-3 HT 1-2	South Adelaide
05/04/24 Australia South Australia Premier League	South Adelaide	0-4 HT 0-1	Modbury Jets
09/06/23 Australia South Australia Premier League	South Adelaide	2-4 HT 1-1	Modbury Jets
25/03/23 Australia South Australia Premier League	Modbury Jets	4-3 HT 1-2	South Adelaide
07/05/22 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Modbury Jets	4-3 HT 1-0	South Adelaide

Standings · Australia South Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	19	13	1	5	50	23	40
2	Adelaide Olympic	19	12	1	6	38	24	37
3	Modbury Jets	19	10	5	4	38	18	35
4	Fulham United FC	19	10	3	6	38	28	33
5	Cumberland United	19	10	1	8	34	25	31
6	Adelaide Blue Eagles	19	9	4	6	32	26	31
7	Adelaide Atletico	19	9	3	7	33	29	30
8	Cove	19	7	5	7	26	27	26
9	Adelaide Cobras	19	6	2	11	22	37	20
10	Eastern United	19	4	4	11	18	39	16
11	Salisbury United	19	4	2	13	23	42	14
12	South Adelaide	19	3	3	13	20	54	12

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Adelaide	Modbury Jets
Adelaide Olympic	1-5 L	4-1 W
Cove	2-2 D	0-0 D
Adelaide Blue Eagles	1-4 L	1-3 L
Fulham United FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Cumberland United	1-5 L	0-1 L
Adelaide Croatia Raiders	2-3 L	1-3 L
Eastern United	1-1 D	0-0 D
Adelaide Atletico	1-1 D	4-0 W
Salisbury United	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Modbury Jets (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South Adelaide

WDDLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	1-5	9	6	L
18/07	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	2-2	10	6	D
04/07	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-3	1-4	4	3	L
27/06	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
20/06	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-4	1-5	5	2	L
13/06	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	2-3	9	2	L
06/06	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
30/05	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/05	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
16/05	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	2-0	8	3	W

Modbury Jets

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	4-0	2	2	W
18/07	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	3-2	6	3	W
13/07	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
07/07	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
03/07	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
27/06	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	4-1	8	4	W
20/06	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
05/06	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
30/05	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	1-3	10	3	L
23/05	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Adelaide vs Modbury Jets?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Modbury Jets win (71%). Probabilities: South Adelaide 12%, draw 17%, Modbury Jets 71%.

How many goals are expected in South Adelaide vs Modbury Jets?

The model expects 3.43 goals (South Adelaide 0.93 · Modbury Jets 2.5), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in South Adelaide vs Modbury Jets?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.