Football · Australia South Australia State League 1 · 01/08, 09:30

Prediction: Cove vs Cumberland United

Team pages: Cove · Cumberland United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Cove1.41

Cumberland United1.5

1X2

35% 25% 39%

Cove Draw Cumberland United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cove 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Cumberland United 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLDWLW

Head-to-head

Cove 2–1–3 Cumberland United (6 last)

Cumberland United0-2Cove
Cumberland United2-0Cove
Cove2-1Cumberland United
Cumberland United3-1Cove
Cove0-0Cumberland United
Cumberland United1-0Cove

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cove 1447 · Cumberland United 1541

	Cove	Draw	Cumberland United
Our model	34%	27%	38%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cumberland United (rating 1447 vs 1541).
H2H favours Cumberland United: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cove	Cumberland United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.8	2.2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.70

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +15’	2.50	3.70	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cove 2–1–3 Cumberland United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Australia South Australia State League 1	Cumberland United	0-2 HT 0-1	Cove
07/06/25 Australia South Australia State League 1	Cumberland United	2-0 HT 0-0	Cove
01/03/25 Australia South Australia State League 1	Cove	2-1	Cumberland United
13/04/24 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Cumberland United	3-1 HT 1-1	Cove
15/07/18 Australia South Australia State League 1	Cove	0-0 HT 0-0	Cumberland United
12/05/18 Australia South Australia State League 1	Cumberland United	1-0 HT 1-0	Cove

Standings · Australia South Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	19	13	1	5	50	23	40
2	Adelaide Olympic	19	12	1	6	38	24	37
3	Modbury Jets	19	10	5	4	38	18	35
4	Fulham United FC	19	10	3	6	38	28	33
5	Cumberland United	19	10	1	8	34	25	31
6	Adelaide Blue Eagles	19	9	4	6	32	26	31
7	Adelaide Atletico	19	9	3	7	33	29	30
8	Cove	19	7	5	7	26	27	26
9	Adelaide Cobras	19	6	2	11	22	37	20
10	Eastern United	19	4	4	11	18	39	16
11	Salisbury United	19	4	2	13	23	42	14
12	South Adelaide	19	3	3	13	20	54	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cove	Cumberland United
Adelaide Cobras	0-1 L	2-0 W
South Adelaide	2-2 D	5-1 W
Adelaide Atletico	0-0 D	1-2 L
Eastern United	0-1 L	1-0 W
Adelaide Blue Eagles	1-3 L	2-1 W
Fulham United FC	2-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cumberland United (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Cove

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
18/07	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
14/07	Adelaide United Australia Friendlies	0-4	0-5	1	0	L
07/07	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
04/07	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
27/06	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	3-0	4-0	6	2	W
20/06	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
05/06	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
30/05	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	0-3	1-3	5	3	L
23/05	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	1-2	2-3	10	4	L

Cumberland United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
21/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia Cup	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
16/07	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
11/07	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Federation Cup	1-1	2-2	1	9	D
04/07	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	1-2	1-2	4	2	L
26/06	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
20/06	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	4-1	5-1	3	2	W
13/06	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
10/06	Adelaide Cobras Australia Cup Qualifying	1-1	3-2	8	3	W
06/06	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	1-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cove vs Cumberland United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cumberland United win (39%). Probabilities: Cove 35%, draw 25%, Cumberland United 39%.

How many goals are expected in Cove vs Cumberland United?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Cove 1.41 · Cumberland United 1.5), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Cove vs Cumberland United?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.