Football · Australia South Australia State League 1 · 01/08, 07:30

Prediction: Adelaide Atletico vs Salisbury United

Team pages: Adelaide Atletico · Salisbury United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Adelaide Atletico2.16

Salisbury United1.47

1X2

53% 22% 25%

Adelaide Atletico Draw Salisbury United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Adelaide Atletico 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLWDLL

Salisbury United 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDLLLW

Head-to-head

Adelaide Atletico 2–2–2 Salisbury United (6 last)

Salisbury United1-2Adelaide Atletico
Adelaide Atletico2-4Salisbury United
Salisbury United3-0Adelaide Atletico
Salisbury United2-4Adelaide Atletico
Adelaide Atletico1-1Salisbury United
Adelaide Atletico3-3Salisbury United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Adelaide Atletico 1500 · Salisbury United 1454

	Adelaide Atletico	Draw	Salisbury United
Our model	52%	22%	25%
Market	53%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adelaide Atletico (rating 1500 vs 1454).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Adelaide Atletico	Salisbury United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.5	2.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.10

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +14’	1.70	4.10	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide Atletico 2–2–2 Salisbury United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia South Australia State League 1	Salisbury United	1-2 HT 1-0	Adelaide Atletico
15/06/24 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Atletico	2-4 HT 1-4	Salisbury United
23/03/24 Australia South Australia State League 1	Salisbury United	3-0 HT 2-0	Adelaide Atletico
06/07/19 Australia South Australia State League 1	Salisbury United	2-4 HT 0-1	Adelaide Atletico
18/05/19 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Atletico	1-1 HT 1-1	Salisbury United
27/05/17 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Atletico	3-3 HT 1-0	Salisbury United

Standings · Australia South Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	19	13	1	5	50	23	40
2	Adelaide Olympic	19	12	1	6	38	24	37
3	Modbury Jets	19	10	5	4	38	18	35
4	Fulham United FC	19	10	3	6	38	28	33
5	Cumberland United	19	10	1	8	34	25	31
6	Adelaide Blue Eagles	19	9	4	6	32	26	31
7	Adelaide Atletico	19	9	3	7	33	29	30
8	Cove	19	7	5	7	26	27	26
9	Adelaide Cobras	19	6	2	11	22	37	20
10	Eastern United	19	4	4	11	18	39	16
11	Salisbury United	19	4	2	13	23	42	14
12	South Adelaide	19	3	3	13	20	54	12

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Adelaide Atletico	Salisbury United
Modbury Jets	0-4 L	2-3 L
Adelaide Olympic	0-1 L	0-1 L
Cove	0-0 D	0-4 L
Adelaide Blue Eagles	4-0 W	0-3 L
Adelaide Croatia Raiders	1-3 L	4-3 W
Fulham United FC	1-4 L	2-2 D
Cumberland United	2-1 W	3-4 L
Adelaide Cobras	3-2 W	2-1 W
South Adelaide	1-1 D	0-2 L
Eastern United	5-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Adelaide Atletico (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Adelaide Atletico

WDWWLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
18/07	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
04/07	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
27/06	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	4-0	6	7	W
20/06	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	0-3	1-3	4	6	L
13/06	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
06/06	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
30/05	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	3-2	8	6	W
23/05	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-1	9	5	D
16/05	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	4-0	5-0	3	1	W

Salisbury United

LWLWLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
18/07	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	2-3	10	3	L
03/07	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
27/06	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	0-3	0-4	6	2	L
20/06	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
13/06	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
06/06	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	4-3	6	1	W
30/05	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-3	3-4	3	0	L
23/05	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	2-1	12	3	W
16/05	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	0-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Adelaide Atletico vs Salisbury United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Adelaide Atletico win (53%). Probabilities: Adelaide Atletico 53%, draw 22%, Salisbury United 25%.

How many goals are expected in Adelaide Atletico vs Salisbury United?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Adelaide Atletico 2.16 · Salisbury United 1.47), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Adelaide Atletico vs Salisbury United?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.