Football · Australia South Australia State League 1 · 08/08, 07:30

Prediction: Salisbury United vs South Adelaide

Team pages: Salisbury United · South Adelaide

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

Salisbury United2.26

South Adelaide1.48

1X2

54% 21% 24%

Salisbury United Draw South Adelaide

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Salisbury United 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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South Adelaide 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Salisbury United 0–1–5 South Adelaide (6 last)

South Adelaide2-0Salisbury United
South Adelaide0-0Salisbury United
Salisbury United0-4South Adelaide
Salisbury United0-3South Adelaide
South Adelaide10-0Salisbury United
Salisbury United1-4South Adelaide

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Salisbury United 1452 · South Adelaide 1420

	Salisbury United	Draw	South Adelaide
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	54%	21%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours South Adelaide: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Salisbury United	South Adelaide
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.3	1.1 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.4 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	2.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.20

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:00 +11’	1.65	4.20	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Salisbury United 0–1–5 South Adelaide

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia South Australia State League 1	South Adelaide	2-0 HT 2-0	Salisbury United
19/07/25 Australia South Australia State League 1	South Adelaide	0-0 HT 0-0	Salisbury United
26/04/25 Australia South Australia State League 1	Salisbury United	0-4 HT 0-4	South Adelaide
10/02/18 Australia Friendlies	Salisbury United	0-3 HT 0-3	South Adelaide
08/04/17 Australia South Australia State League 1	South Adelaide	10-0 HT 4-0	Salisbury United
14/01/17 Australia Friendlies	Salisbury United	1-4 HT 1-2	South Adelaide

Standings · Australia South Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	20	13	2	5	51	24	41
2	Adelaide Olympic	20	13	1	6	40	24	40
3	Modbury Jets	20	11	5	4	41	20	38
4	Cumberland United	20	11	1	8	36	25	34
5	Fulham United FC	20	10	3	7	39	30	33
6	Adelaide Atletico	20	10	3	7	35	29	33
7	Adelaide Blue Eagles	20	9	5	6	33	27	32
8	Cove	20	7	5	8	26	29	26
9	Adelaide Cobras	20	6	2	12	22	39	20
10	Eastern United	20	5	4	11	20	40	19
11	Salisbury United	20	4	2	14	23	44	14
12	South Adelaide	20	3	3	14	22	57	12

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Salisbury United	South Adelaide
Adelaide Atletico	0-2 L	1-1 D
Eastern United	3-0 W	1-1 D
Modbury Jets	2-3 L	2-3 L
Adelaide Olympic	0-1 L	1-5 L
Cove	0-4 L	2-2 D
Fulham United FC	2-2 D	0-1 L
Adelaide Blue Eagles	0-3 L	1-4 L
Adelaide Croatia Raiders	4-3 W	2-3 L
Cumberland United	3-4 L	1-5 L
Adelaide Cobras	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	0 W 3 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Salisbury United (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Salisbury United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
24/07	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
18/07	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	2-3	10	3	L
03/07	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
27/06	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	0-3	0-4	6	2	L
20/06	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
13/06	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
06/06	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	4-3	6	1	W
30/05	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-3	3-4	3	0	L
23/05	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	2-1	12	3	W

South Adelaide

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	1-2	2-3	5	3	L
24/07	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	1-5	9	6	L
18/07	Cove Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	2-2	10	6	D
04/07	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-3	1-4	4	3	L
27/06	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
20/06	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-4	1-5	5	2	L
13/06	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	2-3	9	2	L
06/06	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
30/05	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/05	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-1	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Salisbury United vs South Adelaide?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Salisbury United win (54%). Probabilities: Salisbury United 54%, draw 21%, South Adelaide 24%.

How many goals are expected in Salisbury United vs South Adelaide?

The model expects 3.74 goals (Salisbury United 2.26 · South Adelaide 1.48), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Salisbury United vs South Adelaide?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.