Football · Australia South Australia State League 1 · 08/08, 07:30

Prediction: Adelaide Croatia Raiders vs Cove

Team pages: Adelaide Croatia Raiders · Cove

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Adelaide Croatia Raiders2.14

Cove1.21

1X2

58% 21% 20%

Adelaide Croatia Raiders Draw Cove

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Adelaide Croatia Raiders 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Cove 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Adelaide Croatia Raiders 1–3–0 Cove (4 last)

Cove1-1Adelaide Croatia Raiders
Cove2-2Adelaide Croatia Raiders
Adelaide Croatia Raiders2-1Cove
Adelaide Croatia Raiders1-1Cove

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Adelaide Croatia Raiders 1589 · Cove 1425

	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	Draw	Cove
Our model	58%	22%	20%
Market	59%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adelaide Croatia Raiders (rating 1589 vs 1425).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	Cove
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.3	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6	2.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.33

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:06 +6’	1.53	4.33	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide Croatia Raiders 1–3–0 Cove

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia South Australia State League 1	Cove	1-1 HT 0-0	Adelaide Croatia Raiders
19/05/18 Australia South Australia State League 1	Cove	2-2 HT 1-1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders
16/02/18 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	2-1 HT 1-1	Cove
22/04/17 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	1-1 HT 1-0	Cove

Standings · Australia South Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	20	13	2	5	51	24	41
2	Adelaide Olympic	20	13	1	6	40	24	40
3	Modbury Jets	20	11	5	4	41	20	38
4	Cumberland United	20	11	1	8	36	25	34
5	Fulham United FC	20	10	3	7	39	30	33
6	Adelaide Atletico	20	10	3	7	35	29	33
7	Adelaide Blue Eagles	20	9	5	6	33	27	32
8	Cove	20	7	5	8	26	29	26
9	Adelaide Cobras	20	6	2	12	22	39	20
10	Eastern United	20	5	4	11	20	40	19
11	Salisbury United	20	4	2	14	23	44	14
12	South Adelaide	20	3	3	14	22	57	12

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	Cove
Adelaide Blue Eagles	1-1 D	1-3 L
Eastern United	3-0 W	0-1 L
Cumberland United	2-1 W	0-2 L
Adelaide Cobras	7-0 W	0-1 L
Adelaide Atletico	3-1 W	0-0 D
South Adelaide	3-2 W	2-2 D
Salisbury United	3-4 L	4-0 W
Modbury Jets	3-1 W	0-0 D
Adelaide Olympic	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Adelaide Croatia Raiders (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Adelaide Croatia Raiders

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
25/07	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
18/07	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	3-0	8	3	W
04/07	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
27/06	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	7-0	11	1	W
20/06	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	3-0	3-1	4	6	W
13/06	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	3-2	4	2	W
06/06	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-2	3-4	14	1	L
30/05	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	3-1	4	3	W
23/05	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	2-0	3-1	3	4	W

Cove

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
25/07	Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
18/07	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
14/07	Adelaide United Australia Friendlies	0-4	0-5	1	0	L
07/07	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
04/07	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
27/06	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	3-0	4-0	6	2	W
20/06	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
05/06	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
30/05	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	0-3	1-3	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Adelaide Croatia Raiders vs Cove?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Adelaide Croatia Raiders win (58%). Probabilities: Adelaide Croatia Raiders 58%, draw 21%, Cove 20%.

How many goals are expected in Adelaide Croatia Raiders vs Cove?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Adelaide Croatia Raiders 2.14 · Cove 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Adelaide Croatia Raiders vs Cove?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.