Football · Australia South Australia State League 1 · 18/07, 07:30
Prediction: South Adelaide vs Cove
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.99Total
South Adelaide1.09
Cove1.9
1X2
South Adelaide
Draw
Cove
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
South Adelaide
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Cove
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
South Adelaide
0–3
Cove
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · South Adelaide 1426 · Cove 1482
| South Adelaide | Draw | Cove | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Market | 22% | 21% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cove (rating 1426 vs 1482).
- H2H favours Cove: 3-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| South Adelaide | Cove | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.1 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.3 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.3 | 3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · South Adelaide 0–0–3 Cove
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Australia South Australia State League 1 | Cove | 2-1 HT 1-1 | South Adelaide |
| 05/08/25 Australia South Australia State League 1 | Cove | 4-0 HT 1-0 | South Adelaide |
| 02/05/25 Australia South Australia State League 1 | South Adelaide | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Cove |
Standings · Australia South Australia State League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Croatia Raiders | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 46 | 23 | 34 |
| 2 | Fulham United FC | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 27 | 33 |
| 3 | Adelaide Olympic | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 23 | 31 |
| 4 | Adelaide Atletico | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 24 | 30 |
| 5 | Adelaide Blue Eagles | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 24 | 30 |
| 6 | Modbury Jets | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 16 | 29 |
| 7 | Cumberland United | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 24 | 28 |
| 8 | Cove | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 25 |
| 9 | Eastern United | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 33 | 16 |
| 10 | Adelaide Cobras | 17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 37 | 16 |
| 11 | Salisbury United | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 39 | 11 |
| 12 | South Adelaide | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 17 | 47 | 11 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | South Adelaide | Cove |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Blue Eagles | 1-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Fulham United FC | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Cumberland United | 1-5 L | 2-0 W |
| Adelaide Croatia Raiders | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Eastern United | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Adelaide Atletico | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Salisbury United | 2-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Modbury Jets | 1-4 L | 0-0 D |
| Adelaide Olympic | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 5 L | 2 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Cove (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
South Adelaide
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-4 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
Cove
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Adelaide United Australia Friendlies |
0-4 | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 07/07 | Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 04/07 | Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 27/06 | Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 05/06 | Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 7 | D |
| 08/05 | Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in South Adelaide vs Cove?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cove win (56%). Probabilities: South Adelaide 22%, draw 22%, Cove 56%.
How many goals are expected in South Adelaide vs Cove?
The model expects 2.99 goals (South Adelaide 1.09 · Cove 1.9), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in South Adelaide vs Cove?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.