Football · Australia South Australia State League 1 · 24/07, 12:00
Prediction: Adelaide Olympic vs South Adelaide
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Adelaide Olympic2.44
South Adelaide0.89
1X2
Adelaide Olympic
Draw
South Adelaide
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Adelaide Olympic
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
South Adelaide
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Adelaide Olympic
4–1–1
South Adelaide
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adelaide Olympic 1538 · South Adelaide 1439
| Adelaide Olympic | Draw | South Adelaide | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adelaide Olympic (rating 1538 vs 1439).
- H2H favours Adelaide Olympic: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Adelaide Olympic | South Adelaide | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.7 | 2.7 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide Olympic 4–1–1 South Adelaide
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Australia South Australia State League 1 | South Adelaide | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Adelaide Olympic |
| 21/06/25 Australia South Australia State League 1 | Adelaide Olympic | 2-1 HT 1-1 | South Adelaide |
| 21/03/25 Australia South Australia State League 1 | South Adelaide | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Adelaide Olympic |
| 03/08/24 Australia South Australia Premier League | Adelaide Olympic | 1-0 HT 1-0 | South Adelaide |
| 10/05/24 Australia South Australia Premier League | South Adelaide | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Adelaide Olympic |
| 27/05/23 Australia South Australia Premier League | South Adelaide | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Adelaide Olympic |
Standings · Australia South Australia State League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Croatia Raiders | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 49 | 23 | 37 |
| 2 | Adelaide Olympic | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 23 | 34 |
| 3 | Fulham United FC | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 27 | 33 |
| 4 | Modbury Jets | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 18 | 32 |
| 5 | Adelaide Blue Eagles | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 24 | 31 |
| 6 | Adelaide Atletico | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 25 | 30 |
| 7 | Cumberland United | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 24 | 28 |
| 8 | Cove | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| 9 | Adelaide Cobras | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 37 | 17 |
| 10 | Eastern United | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 16 |
| 11 | South Adelaide | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 49 | 12 |
| 12 | Salisbury United | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 20 | 42 | 11 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Adelaide Olympic | South Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Atletico | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Salisbury United | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Modbury Jets | 1-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Cove | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Eastern United | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Adelaide Blue Eagles | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Fulham United FC | 4-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Adelaide Croatia Raiders | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Cumberland United | 2-1 W | 1-5 L |
| Adelaide Cobras | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 3 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Adelaide Olympic (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adelaide Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 03/07 | Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Cove Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 12/06 | Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 29/05 | Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
South Adelaide
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Cove Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 04/07 | Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-4 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adelaide Olympic vs South Adelaide?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Adelaide Olympic win (71%). Probabilities: Adelaide Olympic 71%, draw 17%, South Adelaide 12%.
How many goals are expected in Adelaide Olympic vs South Adelaide?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Adelaide Olympic 2.44 · South Adelaide 0.89), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Adelaide Olympic vs South Adelaide?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.