Football · Australia South Australia State League 1 · 25/07, 09:30

Prediction: Cove vs Adelaide Cobras

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Cove1.68

Adelaide Cobras1.17

1X2

49% 25% 26%

Cove Draw Adelaide Cobras

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cove 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Adelaide Cobras 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cove 1–1–4 Adelaide Cobras (6 last)

Adelaide Cobras1-2Cove
Adelaide Cobras2-0Cove
Cove1-2Adelaide Cobras

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cove 1458 · Adelaide Cobras 1418

	Cove	Draw	Adelaide Cobras
Our model	48%	26%	25%
Market	50%	23%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cove (rating 1458 vs 1418).
H2H favours Adelaide Cobras: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cove	Adelaide Cobras
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	0.8 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.8	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.90

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +2’	1.80	3.90	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cove 1–1–4 Adelaide Cobras

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Cobras	1-2 HT 0-1	Cove
16/08/25 Australia South Australia State League 1	Adelaide Cobras	2-0 HT 1-0	Cove
24/05/25 Australia South Australia State League 1	Cove	1-2 HT 0-0	Adelaide Cobras
19/04/22 Australia South Australia State League 2	Cove	1-1 HT 1-0	Adelaide Cobras
12/09/20 Australia South Australia State League 2	Adelaide Cobras	1-0 HT 1-0	Cove
25/07/20 Australia South Australia State League 2	Cove	0-1 HT 0-0	Adelaide Cobras

Standings · Australia South Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide Croatia Raiders	18	12	1	5	49	23	37
2	Adelaide Olympic	18	11	1	6	33	23	34
3	Fulham United FC	18	10	3	5	38	27	33
4	Modbury Jets	18	9	5	4	34	18	32
5	Adelaide Blue Eagles	18	9	4	5	31	24	31
6	Adelaide Atletico	18	9	3	6	33	25	30
7	Cumberland United	18	9	1	8	32	24	28
8	Cove	18	7	5	6	26	26	26
9	Adelaide Cobras	18	5	2	11	21	37	17
10	Eastern United	18	4	4	10	18	36	16
11	South Adelaide	18	3	3	12	19	49	12
12	Salisbury United	18	3	2	13	20	42	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cove	Adelaide Cobras
South Adelaide	2-2 D	2-0 W
Modbury Jets	0-0 D	0-2 L
Adelaide Atletico	0-0 D	2-3 L
Salisbury United	4-0 W	1-2 L
Eastern United	0-1 L	1-1 D
Adelaide Blue Eagles	1-3 L	0-0 D
Fulham United FC	2-3 L	0-3 L
Adelaide Croatia Raiders	1-1 D	0-7 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Cove (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Cove

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
14/07	Adelaide United Australia Friendlies	0-4	0-5	1	0	L
07/07	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
04/07	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
27/06	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	3-0	4-0	6	2	W
20/06	Adelaide Olympic Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
05/06	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
30/05	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	0-3	1-3	5	3	L
23/05	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	1-2	2-3	10	4	L
16/05	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	1-1	12	7	D

Adelaide Cobras

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Adelaide Blue Eagles Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
04/07	Fulham United FC Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
27/06	Adelaide Croatia Raiders Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-7	2	1	L
20/06	Eastern United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
13/06	Cumberland United Australia South Australia State League 1	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
10/06	Cumberland United Australia Cup Qualifying	1-1	2-3	3	3	L
06/06	South Adelaide Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-0	1	0	W
30/05	Adelaide Atletico Australia South Australia State League 1	1-0	2-3	6	6	L
23/05	Salisbury United Australia South Australia State League 1	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
19/05	Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	0-1	0-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cove vs Adelaide Cobras?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cove win (49%). Probabilities: Cove 49%, draw 25%, Adelaide Cobras 26%.

How many goals are expected in Cove vs Adelaide Cobras?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Cove 1.68 · Adelaide Cobras 1.17), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Cove vs Adelaide Cobras?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.