Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 08/08, 07:00

Prediction: Croydon FC vs Sturt Lions

Team pages: Croydon FC · Sturt Lions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

Croydon FC2.15

Sturt Lions1.79

1X2

45% 23% 32%

Croydon FC Draw Sturt Lions

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Croydon FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWWDDL

Sturt Lions 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLWDW

Head-to-head

Croydon FC 5–1–0 Sturt Lions (6 last)

Sturt Lions0-2Croydon FC
Sturt Lions1-1Croydon FC
Croydon FC3-1Sturt Lions
Croydon FC5-2Sturt Lions
Croydon FC2-1Sturt Lions
Sturt Lions0-4Croydon FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Croydon FC 1540 · Sturt Lions 1495

	Croydon FC	Draw	Sturt Lions
Our model	46%	22%	32%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Croydon FC (rating 1540 vs 1495).
H2H favours Croydon FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Croydon FC	Sturt Lions
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 2	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.3	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.80

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:11	2.00	3.80	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Croydon FC 5–1–0 Sturt Lions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia South Australia Premier League	Sturt Lions	0-2 HT 0-0	Croydon FC
20/05/23 Australia South Australia Premier League	Sturt Lions	1-1 HT 1-0	Croydon FC
15/04/23 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Croydon FC	3-1 HT 0-0	Sturt Lions
25/02/23 Australia South Australia Premier League	Croydon FC	5-2 HT 1-0	Sturt Lions
09/07/22 Australia South Australia Premier League	Croydon FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Sturt Lions
09/04/22 Australia South Australia Premier League	Sturt Lions	0-4 HT 0-2	Croydon FC

Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Adelaide City	20	12	6	2	40	16	42
2	West Torrens Birkalla	20	13	2	5	47	25	41
3	Metrostars	20	11	5	4	50	23	38
4	White City FK Beograd	20	10	3	7	35	25	33
5	Playford	20	9	5	6	40	29	32
6	Croydon FC	20	8	5	7	45	38	29
7	Adelaide United NPL	20	6	8	6	27	28	26
8	West Adelaide	20	6	7	7	38	36	25
9	Sturt Lions	19	8	1	10	33	32	25
10	Campbelltown City	20	6	5	9	30	35	23
11	Adelaide Comets	19	4	4	11	20	35	16
12	Para Hills Knights	20	0	1	19	10	93	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Croydon FC	Sturt Lions
White City FK Beograd	3-4 L	2-1 W
Campbelltown City	2-2 D	0-2 L
Adelaide City	2-2 D	1-4 L
Adelaide United NPL	3-0 W	3-2 W
West Adelaide	5-5 D	0-0 D
Playford	4-1 W	1-0 W
West Torrens Birkalla	0-1 L	1-4 L
Para Hills Knights	5-1 W	6-0 W
Metrostars	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Croydon FC (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Croydon FC

LWLWDWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	3-4	7	3	L
25/07	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
18/07	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
03/07	Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League	2-1	4-1	2	0	W
26/06	Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
20/06	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	1-4	5-5	3	1	D
13/06	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	2-1	4-1	8	3	W
05/06	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
30/05	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	2-0	5-1	4	2	W
23/05	Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	2-3	2	4	L

Sturt Lions

LLWLLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League	2-1	3-2	0	2	W
18/07	West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
04/07	Playford Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/06	West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
20/06	Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League	4-0	6-0	11	1	W
13/06	Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
05/06	Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-2	1-4	4	8	L
30/05	White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
23/05	Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
16/05	Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League	0-0	0-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Croydon FC vs Sturt Lions?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Croydon FC win (45%). Probabilities: Croydon FC 45%, draw 23%, Sturt Lions 32%.

How many goals are expected in Croydon FC vs Sturt Lions?

The model expects 3.94 goals (Croydon FC 2.15 · Sturt Lions 1.79), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Croydon FC vs Sturt Lions?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.