Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 15/08, 11:30
Prediction: Metrostars vs Croydon FC
Team pages: Metrostars · Croydon FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.06Total
Metrostars2.57
Croydon FC1.49
1X2
Metrostars
Draw
Croydon FC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Metrostars
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Croydon FC
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Metrostars
4–2
Croydon FC
(6 last)
- Croydon FC2-3Metrostars
- Croydon FC4-1Metrostars
- Metrostars1-2Croydon FC
- Metrostars4-0Croydon FC
- Croydon FC0-1Metrostars
- Croydon FC2-3Metrostars
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Metrostars 1526 · Croydon FC 1541
| Metrostars | Draw | Croydon FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 19% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Metrostars: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Metrostars | Croydon FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1 | 2.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.9 | 2.1 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Metrostars 4–0–2 Croydon FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Australia South Australia Premier League | Croydon FC | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Metrostars |
| 04/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Croydon FC | 4-1 HT 0-0 | Metrostars |
| 12/09/25 Australia South Australia Premier League | Metrostars | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Croydon FC |
| 06/08/25 Australia South Australia Premier League | Metrostars | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Croydon FC |
| 17/05/25 Australia South Australia Premier League | Croydon FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Metrostars |
| 29/06/24 Australia South Australia Premier League | Croydon FC | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Metrostars |
Standings · Australia South Australia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 41 | 16 | 45 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 44 |
| 3 | Metrostars | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 51 | 23 | 41 |
| 4 | White City FK Beograd | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 27 | 33 |
| 5 | Playford | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 30 | 32 |
| 6 | Croydon FC | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 39 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide United NPL | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 32 | 30 | 29 |
| 8 | Sturt Lions | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 33 | 27 |
| 9 | Campbelltown City | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 35 | 26 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 39 | 42 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 36 | 17 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 21 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 98 | 1 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Metrostars | Croydon FC |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Comets | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Adelaide United NPL | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| West Adelaide | 1-3 L | 5-5 D |
| Playford | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| West Torrens Birkalla | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Para Hills Knights | 9-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Adelaide City | 0-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Sturt Lions | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| White City FK Beograd | 2-1 W | 3-4 L |
| Campbelltown City | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 4 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Metrostars
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 01/08 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Playford Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League |
4-0 | 9-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 30/05 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Croydon FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 01/08 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 18/07 | Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 03/07 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 26/06 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-4 | 5-5 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 13/06 | Playford Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 05/06 | West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Metrostars vs Croydon FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Metrostars win (60%). Probabilities: Metrostars 60%, draw 20%, Croydon FC 20%.
How many goals are expected in Metrostars vs Croydon FC?
The model expects 4.06 goals (Metrostars 2.57 · Croydon FC 1.49), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Metrostars vs Croydon FC?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.