Football · Brazil Serie A · 08/10, 01:00
Prediction: Vitoria vs Chapecoense
Team pages: Vitoria · Chapecoense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Vitoria1.64
Chapecoense0.86
1X2
Vitoria
Draw
Chapecoense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Vitoria
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Chapecoense
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vitoria
2–3–1
Chapecoense
(6 last)
- Chapecoense1-1Vitoria
- Chapecoense3-1Vitoria
- Vitoria1-0Chapecoense
- Vitoria0-0Chapecoense
- Chapecoense1-1Vitoria
- Chapecoense0-1Vitoria
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vitoria 1434 · Chapecoense 1458
| Vitoria | Draw | Chapecoense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Vitoria: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vitoria | Chapecoense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.7 | 1.2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.8 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria 2–3–1 Chapecoense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Brazil Serie A | Chapecoense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Vitoria |
| 25/11/23 Brazil Serie B | Chapecoense | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Vitoria |
| 25/07/23 Brazil Serie B | Vitoria | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Chapecoense |
| 17/01/21 Brazil Serie B | Vitoria | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chapecoense |
| 17/10/20 Brazil Serie B | Chapecoense | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Vitoria |
| 14/10/18 Brazil Serie A | Chapecoense | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Vitoria |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55 | 23 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47 | 21 | 57 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 32 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44 | 36 | 48 |
| 5 | EC Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 35 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 45 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 32 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 40 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 31 | 36 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 30 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 45 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 42 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 32 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33 | 42 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 41 | 31 |
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 38 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 36 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 47 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 53 | 18 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vitoria | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Atletico Mineiro | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| EC Bahia | 0-2 L | 3-3 D |
| Flamengo | 0-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vitoria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 08/09 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 16/08 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 30/07 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 27/07 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
Chapecoense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 07/09 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 23/07 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vitoria vs Chapecoense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Vitoria win (55%). Probabilities: Vitoria 55%, draw 26%, Chapecoense 19%.
How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Chapecoense?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Vitoria 1.64 · Chapecoense 0.86), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Chapecoense?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.