Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 15/08, 17:00

Prediction: Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Rustavi

Team pages: Dinamo Tbilisi · FC Rustavi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Dinamo Tbilisi1.41

FC Rustavi1.16

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Dinamo Tbilisi Draw FC Rustavi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dinamo Tbilisi 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Rustavi 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Dinamo Tbilisi 4–2–0 FC Rustavi (6 last)

FC Rustavi2-3Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi0-0FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi0-2Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi2-2FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi0-1Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi3-1FC Rustavi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dinamo Tbilisi 1540 · FC Rustavi 1532

	Dinamo Tbilisi	Draw	FC Rustavi
Our model	42%	29%	30%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dinamo Tbilisi: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dinamo Tbilisi	FC Rustavi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/44/33%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.10 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.42 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:50 +7’	2.10	3.20	3.10
07:39 +8’	2.05▼	3.25▲	3.20▲
15:38 +7’	2.15▲	3.20▼	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:44 +3’	2.04	3.17	3.50
15:26 +19’	2.12▲	3.19▲	3.42▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dinamo Tbilisi 4–2–0 FC Rustavi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Rustavi	2-3 HT 2-2	Dinamo Tbilisi
11/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Rustavi
09/11/19 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Rustavi	0-2 HT 0-0	Dinamo Tbilisi
25/08/19 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Rustavi
28/05/19 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Rustavi	0-1 HT 0-1	Dinamo Tbilisi
07/04/19 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	3-1 HT 2-0	FC Rustavi

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Rustavi	21	11	5	5	26	18	38
2	Dinamo Tbilisi	21	9	7	5	33	25	34
3	FC Iberia 1999	20	10	4	6	30	22	34
4	Torpedo Kutaisi	21	8	6	7	34	23	30
5	Dinamo Batumi	20	7	7	6	30	32	28
6	Samgurali	20	8	4	8	27	33	28
7	Dila Gori	19	8	2	9	21	19	26
8	FC Gagra	20	5	8	7	20	26	23
9	FC Spaeri	20	5	7	8	26	27	22
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	20	1	8	11	14	36	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dinamo Tbilisi	FC Rustavi
FC Spaeri	2-1 W	1-1 D
Dila Gori	0-0 D	0-3 L
FC Iberia 1999	0-1 L	2-1 W
Dinamo Batumi	2-1 W	0-1 L
Samgurali	5-3 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Tbilisi (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Dinamo Tbilisi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	2-1	4	1	W
30/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-7	0	9	L
26/07	Guria Lanchkhuti Georgia Cup	–	0-1	–	–	L
23/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius UEFA Conference League Qualifying	3-0	3-0	2	3	W
16/07	US Mondorf-Les-Bains UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-1	11	4	L
09/07	US Mondorf-Les-Bains UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
01/07	Dila Gori Georgia Super Cup	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
27/06	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Super Cup	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
23/06	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
18/06	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	5-3	2	3	W

FC Rustavi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
01/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Cup	1-1	1-1	9	11	D
26/07	FC Tbilisi 2025 Georgia Cup	0-0	1-0	3	10	W
22/06	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-3	6	5	L
17/06	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
13/06	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
29/05	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
25/05	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
21/05	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
16/05	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	6	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Rustavi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dinamo Tbilisi win (42%). Probabilities: Dinamo Tbilisi 42%, draw 28%, FC Rustavi 30%.

How many goals are expected in Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Rustavi?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Dinamo Tbilisi 1.41 · FC Rustavi 1.16), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Tbilisi vs FC Rustavi?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.