Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 31/08, 17:00

Prediction: FC Gagra vs FC Iberia 1999

Team pages: FC Gagra · FC Iberia 1999

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

FC Gagra0.98

FC Iberia 19991.67

1X2

21% 26% 53%

FC Gagra Draw FC Iberia 1999

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gagra 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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FC Iberia 1999 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Gagra 0–6 FC Iberia 1999 (6 last)

FC Iberia 19991-0FC Gagra
FC Gagra1-2FC Iberia 1999
FC Iberia 19992-1FC Gagra
FC Gagra1-3FC Iberia 1999
FC Iberia 19993-1FC Gagra
FC Gagra0-1FC Iberia 1999

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gagra 1514 · FC Iberia 1999 1514

	FC Gagra	Draw	FC Iberia 1999
Our model	21%	27%	52%
Market	21%	26%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Iberia 1999: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gagra	FC Iberia 1999
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.3	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +7’	4.20	3.50	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gagra 0–0–6 FC Iberia 1999

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Iberia 1999	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Gagra
03/04/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Iberia 1999
06/12/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Iberia 1999	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Gagra
03/10/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	1-3 HT 1-2	FC Iberia 1999
29/05/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Iberia 1999	3-1 HT 2-1	FC Gagra
19/04/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Iberia 1999

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Rustavi	23	12	6	5	30	19	42
2	Dinamo Batumi	23	10	7	6	38	32	37
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	21	9	7	5	33	25	34
4	FC Iberia 1999	20	10	4	6	30	22	34
5	Samgurali	23	9	5	9	32	41	32
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	22	8	7	7	36	25	31
7	Dila Gori	21	9	3	9	26	22	30
8	FC Gagra	22	5	9	8	21	30	24
9	FC Spaeri	23	5	8	10	30	35	23
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	22	1	8	13	15	40	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gagra	FC Iberia 1999
FC Rustavi	0-3 L	1-2 L
FC Spaeri	1-1 D	1-1 D
Dinamo Batumi	2-2 D	1-0 W
Samgurali	0-0 D	2-3 L
Meshakhte Tkibuli	1-1 D	2-1 W
Dinamo Tbilisi	2-1 W	0-2 L
Torpedo Kutaisi	2-1 W	3-4 L
Dila Gori	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Gagra (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Gagra

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-3	3	4	L
17/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
08/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	2-2	5	1	D
24/06	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
18/06	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	2-1	1	0	W
28/05	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-1	2-1	1	4	W
24/05	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
20/05	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
16/05	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	0	D

FC Iberia 1999

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-3	3-4	11	4	L
23/06	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
17/06	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
12/06	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
29/05	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
25/05	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	2-3	5	9	L
20/05	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
16/05	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
10/05	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-1	1	7	D
06/05	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gagra vs FC Iberia 1999?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Iberia 1999 win (53%). Probabilities: FC Gagra 21%, draw 26%, FC Iberia 1999 53%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gagra vs FC Iberia 1999?

The model expects 2.65 goals (FC Gagra 0.98 · FC Iberia 1999 1.67), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gagra vs FC Iberia 1999?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.