Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 09/09, 17:00

Prediction: FC Spaeri vs FC Rustavi

Team pages: FC Spaeri · FC Rustavi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

FC Spaeri1.04

FC Rustavi1.43

1X2

27% 28% 46%

FC Spaeri Draw FC Rustavi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Spaeri 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Rustavi 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Spaeri 1–3–2 FC Rustavi (6 last)

FC Rustavi1-1FC Spaeri
FC Rustavi2-1FC Spaeri
FC Spaeri1-1FC Rustavi
FC Spaeri2-1FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi2-0FC Spaeri
FC Spaeri0-0FC Rustavi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Spaeri 1461 · FC Rustavi 1551

	FC Spaeri	Draw	FC Rustavi
Our model	26%	29%	45%
Market	27%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Rustavi (rating 1461 vs 1551).
H2H favours FC Rustavi: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Spaeri	FC Rustavi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
13:33 +1’	3.30	3.40	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Spaeri 1–3–2 FC Rustavi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Georgia Cup	FC Rustavi	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Spaeri
29/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Rustavi	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Spaeri
18/04/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Spaeri	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Rustavi
21/11/25 Georgia First League	FC Spaeri	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Rustavi
19/09/25 Georgia First League	FC Rustavi	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Spaeri
28/05/25 Georgia First League	FC Spaeri	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Rustavi

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Rustavi	24	12	6	6	30	20	42
2	Dinamo Batumi	24	11	7	6	39	32	40
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	23	10	8	5	36	27	38
4	FC Iberia 1999	22	11	4	7	32	25	37
5	Dila Gori	23	10	3	10	28	24	33
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	24	8	8	8	37	28	32
7	Samgurali	24	9	5	10	33	43	32
8	FC Gagra	24	6	9	9	23	31	27
9	FC Spaeri	24	5	9	10	32	37	24
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	24	2	9	13	19	42	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Spaeri	FC Rustavi
Meshakhte Tkibuli	2-2 D	1-0 W
Dinamo Batumi	0-3 L	0-1 L
Samgurali	3-4 L	1-1 D
FC Gagra	1-1 D	3-0 W
Dinamo Tbilisi	1-2 L	3-0 W
Torpedo Kutaisi	0-0 D	1-0 W
Dila Gori	1-3 L	0-3 L
FC Iberia 1999	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Rustavi (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Spaeri

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	2-2	7	3	D
30/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-3	4	5	L
22/08	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-1	3-4	7	4	L
17/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
09/08	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
22/06	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
16/06	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
12/06	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
29/05	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
25/05	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	7	6	W

FC Rustavi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
30/08	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
22/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
15/08	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
07/08	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
22/06	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-3	6	5	L
17/06	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
13/06	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
29/05	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
25/05	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Spaeri vs FC Rustavi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Rustavi win (46%). Probabilities: FC Spaeri 27%, draw 28%, FC Rustavi 46%.

How many goals are expected in FC Spaeri vs FC Rustavi?

The model expects 2.47 goals (FC Spaeri 1.04 · FC Rustavi 1.43), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Spaeri vs FC Rustavi?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.