Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 09/09, 17:00

Prediction: Samgurali vs Dila Gori

Team pages: Samgurali · Dila Gori

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Samgurali1.37

Dila Gori1.51

1X2

33% 27% 40%

Samgurali Draw Dila Gori

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Samgurali 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Dila Gori 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Samgurali 1–2–3 Dila Gori (6 last)

Dila Gori1-1Samgurali
Dila Gori2-3Samgurali
Samgurali0-1Dila Gori
Dila Gori2-1Samgurali
Samgurali1-2Dila Gori
Samgurali0-0Dila Gori

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Samgurali 1503 · Dila Gori 1515

	Samgurali	Draw	Dila Gori
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dila Gori: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Samgurali	Dila Gori
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.1	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.1	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.30

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +8’	2.70	3.30	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Samgurali 1–2–3 Dila Gori

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/08/26 Georgia Cup	Dila Gori	1-1 HT 1-0	Samgurali
29/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dila Gori	2-3 HT 2-1	Samgurali
17/04/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	0-1 HT 0-0	Dila Gori
26/11/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dila Gori	2-1 HT 2-0	Samgurali
19/09/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	1-2 HT 1-1	Dila Gori
27/07/25 Georgia Cup	Samgurali	0-0 HT 0-0	Dila Gori

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Rustavi	24	12	6	6	30	20	42
2	Dinamo Batumi	24	11	7	6	39	32	40
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	23	10	8	5	36	27	38
4	FC Iberia 1999	22	11	4	7	32	25	37
5	Dila Gori	23	10	3	10	28	24	33
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	24	8	8	8	37	28	32
7	Samgurali	24	9	5	10	33	43	32
8	FC Gagra	24	6	9	9	23	31	27
9	FC Spaeri	24	5	9	10	32	37	24
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	24	2	9	13	19	42	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Samgurali	Dila Gori
FC Rustavi	1-1 D	3-0 W
FC Spaeri	4-3 W	3-1 W
Dinamo Batumi	0-4 L	2-3 L
Meshakhte Tkibuli	2-1 W	3-1 W
FC Gagra	0-0 D	1-0 W
Dinamo Tbilisi	3-5 L	1-2 L
Torpedo Kutaisi	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dila Gori (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Samgurali

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
30/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
22/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-3	4-3	1	4	W
16/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-4	1	4	L
09/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
24/06	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
18/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	3-5	8	3	L
13/06	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	6	8	W
29/05	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	3-2	1	3	W
25/05	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	3-2	3	9	W

Dila Gori

DLLLWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
22/08	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-2	2	4	D
16/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-1	3-1	7	5	W
22/06	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
16/06	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
12/06	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	2-3	5	2	L
29/05	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-1	2-3	6	3	L
24/05	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
20/05	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	1	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Samgurali vs Dila Gori?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dila Gori win (40%). Probabilities: Samgurali 33%, draw 27%, Dila Gori 40%.

How many goals are expected in Samgurali vs Dila Gori?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Samgurali 1.37 · Dila Gori 1.51), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Samgurali vs Dila Gori?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.