Football · Georgia First League · 22/08, 15:00

Prediction: FC Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti

Team pages: FC Gareji · Kolkheti Poti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

FC Gareji1.06

Kolkheti Poti1.3

1X2

29% 30% 41%

FC Gareji Draw Kolkheti Poti

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gareji 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWDLDL

Kolkheti Poti 0-6-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDDDLD

Head-to-head

FC Gareji 3–3–0 Kolkheti Poti (6 last)

Kolkheti Poti1-1FC Gareji
FC Gareji2-1Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti1-3FC Gareji
FC Gareji2-2Kolkheti Poti
FC Gareji1-1Kolkheti Poti
FC Gareji4-1Kolkheti Poti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gareji 1526 · Kolkheti Poti 1440

	FC Gareji	Draw	Kolkheti Poti
Our model	29%	30%	41%
Market	29%	30%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Gareji (rating 1526 vs 1440).
H2H favours FC Gareji: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gareji	Kolkheti Poti
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.2	1.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.00

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10
X	3.50 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.11 ★
2	5.50 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.22

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 14.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:11 +34’	1.55	3.50	5.50
10:36 +10’	3.10▲	3.00▼	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:44 +3’	2.65	3.11	2.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gareji 3–3–0 Kolkheti Poti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Georgia First League	Kolkheti Poti	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Gareji
15/03/26 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	2-1 HT 1-0	Kolkheti Poti
02/11/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Kolkheti Poti	1-3 HT 1-0	FC Gareji
24/08/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gareji	2-2 HT 1-0	Kolkheti Poti
20/07/25 Georgia Cup	FC Gareji	1-1 HT 0-0	Kolkheti Poti
08/05/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gareji	4-1 HT 2-0	Kolkheti Poti

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	21	11	7	3	24	14	40
2	FC Telavi	21	10	7	4	23	16	37
3	SFC Shturmi	21	8	9	4	20	15	33
4	Merani Martvili	21	8	7	6	24	22	31
5	Aragvi Dusheti	21	8	4	9	22	27	28
6	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	21	7	7	7	25	27	28
7	FC Sioni Bolnisi	21	6	7	8	26	25	25
8	FC Samtredia	21	6	4	11	30	38	22
9	FC Gori	21	4	7	10	17	26	19
10	Kolkheti Poti	21	4	7	10	26	27	19

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gareji	Kolkheti Poti
Aragvi Dusheti	0-2 L	1-2 L
FC Telavi	0-0 D	1-1 D
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	1-2 L	1-2 L
SFC Shturmi	0-0 D	0-0 D
FC Gori	3-1 W	1-1 D
FC Samtredia	3-2 W	2-2 D
FC Sioni Bolnisi	1-1 D	0-0 D
Merani Martvili	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	0 W 5 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Gareji (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Gareji

WDWDWWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
22/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
17/06	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
13/06	FC Gori Georgia First League	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
30/05	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	2-0	3-2	4	8	W
24/05	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
20/05	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
16/05	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
10/05	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	7	6	W

Kolkheti Poti

LDLLDDDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
08/08	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
22/06	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/06	FC Gori Georgia First League	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
13/06	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-0	2-2	5	6	D
30/05	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
20/05	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
16/05	FC Gareji Georgia First League	1-1	1-1	8	4	D
10/05	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-1	1-3	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kolkheti Poti win (41%). Probabilities: FC Gareji 29%, draw 30%, Kolkheti Poti 41%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti?

The model expects 2.37 goals (FC Gareji 1.06 · Kolkheti Poti 1.3), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.