Football · Georgia First League · 22/08, 18:00

Prediction: SFC Shturmi vs FC Samtredia

Team pages: SFC Shturmi · FC Samtredia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

SFC Shturmi1.67

FC Samtredia1.15

1X2

49% 26% 25%

SFC Shturmi Draw FC Samtredia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SFC Shturmi 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Samtredia 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SFC Shturmi 1–1–1 FC Samtredia (3 last)

FC Samtredia2-1SFC Shturmi
FC Samtredia1-1SFC Shturmi
SFC Shturmi3-2FC Samtredia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SFC Shturmi 1524 · FC Samtredia 1484

	SFC Shturmi	Draw	FC Samtredia
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SFC Shturmi (rating 1524 vs 1484).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SFC Shturmi	FC Samtredia
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	1.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	4.33 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:05 +19’	1.65	3.60	4.33
09:45 +2’	1.91▲	3.40▼	3.40▼
10:55 +14’	1.85▼	3.40	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SFC Shturmi 1–1–1 FC Samtredia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Georgia Cup	FC Samtredia	2-1 HT 1-1	SFC Shturmi
16/05/26 Georgia First League	FC Samtredia	1-1 HT 1-0	SFC Shturmi
15/03/26 Georgia First League	SFC Shturmi	3-2 HT 1-1	FC Samtredia

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	21	11	7	3	24	14	40
2	FC Telavi	21	10	7	4	23	16	37
3	SFC Shturmi	21	8	9	4	20	15	33
4	Merani Martvili	21	8	7	6	24	22	31
5	Aragvi Dusheti	21	8	4	9	22	27	28
6	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	21	7	7	7	25	27	28
7	FC Sioni Bolnisi	21	6	7	8	26	25	25
8	FC Samtredia	21	6	4	11	30	38	22
9	FC Gori	21	4	7	10	17	26	19
10	Kolkheti Poti	21	4	7	10	26	27	19

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SFC Shturmi	FC Samtredia
FC Sioni Bolnisi	1-0 W	2-3 L
Merani Martvili	2-1 W	1-2 L
Kolkheti Poti	0-0 D	2-2 D
FC Gareji	0-0 D	2-3 L
FC Telavi	0-2 L	0-3 L
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	1-2 L	1-1 D
Aragvi Dusheti	2-0 W	4-2 W
FC Gori	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: SFC Shturmi (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SFC Shturmi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
08/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
22/06	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/06	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
13/06	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
30/05	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-2	1-2	8	8	L
24/05	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/05	FC Gori Georgia First League	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
16/05	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
10/05	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-2	0-2	5	2	L

FC Samtredia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
08/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-1	4-2	1	4	W
22/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
17/06	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
13/06	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	2-2	2	6	D
30/05	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-2	2-3	6	8	L
24/05	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-2	0-3	10	5	L
20/05	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
16/05	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
10/05	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-1	1-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SFC Shturmi vs FC Samtredia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SFC Shturmi win (49%). Probabilities: SFC Shturmi 49%, draw 26%, FC Samtredia 25%.

How many goals are expected in SFC Shturmi vs FC Samtredia?

The model expects 2.82 goals (SFC Shturmi 1.67 · FC Samtredia 1.15), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SFC Shturmi vs FC Samtredia?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.