Football · Georgia First League · 22/08, 19:00
Prediction: Aragvi Dusheti vs FC Gori
Team pages: Aragvi Dusheti · FC Gori
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Aragvi Dusheti1.42
FC Gori0.89
1X2
Aragvi Dusheti
Draw
FC Gori
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Aragvi Dusheti
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
FC Gori
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aragvi Dusheti
4–2
FC Gori
(6 last)
- FC Gori0-1Aragvi Dusheti
- Aragvi Dusheti1-0FC Gori
- FC Gori1-0Aragvi Dusheti
- Aragvi Dusheti6-0FC Gori
- FC Gori2-0Aragvi Dusheti
- Aragvi Dusheti5-1FC Gori
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aragvi Dusheti 1533 · FC Gori 1482
| Aragvi Dusheti | Draw | FC Gori | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aragvi Dusheti (rating 1533 vs 1482).
- H2H favours Aragvi Dusheti: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aragvi Dusheti | FC Gori | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.1 | 1.8 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aragvi Dusheti 4–0–2 FC Gori
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Georgia First League | FC Gori | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Aragvi Dusheti |
| 15/03/26 Georgia First League | Aragvi Dusheti | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Gori |
| 03/10/25 Georgia Liga 3 | FC Gori | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Aragvi Dusheti |
| 02/05/25 Georgia Liga 3 | Aragvi Dusheti | 6-0 HT 5-0 | FC Gori |
| 03/11/23 Georgia Liga 3 | FC Gori | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Aragvi Dusheti |
| 05/06/23 Georgia Liga 3 | Aragvi Dusheti | 5-1 HT 2-1 | FC Gori |
Standings · Georgia First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Gareji | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | FC Telavi | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 23 | 16 | 37 |
| 3 | SFC Shturmi | 21 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 33 |
| 4 | Merani Martvili | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | Aragvi Dusheti | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 27 | 28 |
| 6 | Odishi 1919 Zugdidi | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 25 | 27 | 28 |
| 7 | FC Sioni Bolnisi | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 25 | 25 |
| 8 | FC Samtredia | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 30 | 38 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Gori | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 19 |
| 10 | Kolkheti Poti | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 27 | 19 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aragvi Dusheti | FC Gori |
|---|---|---|
| FC Gareji | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| FC Samtredia | 2-4 L | 0-1 L |
| FC Telavi | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| FC Sioni Bolnisi | 3-2 W | 4-1 W |
| Odishi 1919 Zugdidi | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Merani Martvili | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| SFC Shturmi | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Kolkheti Poti | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aragvi Dusheti
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | FC Gareji Georgia First League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | FC Samtredia Georgia First League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 22/06 | FC Telavi Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/06 | FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 29/05 | Merani Martvili Georgia First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | SFC Shturmi Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | FC Gori Georgia First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Gareji Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
FC Gori
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | FC Samtredia Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/06 | Merani Martvili Georgia First League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/06 | Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 13/06 | FC Gareji Georgia First League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | FC Telavi Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 20/05 | SFC Shturmi Georgia First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | FC Samtredia Georgia First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aragvi Dusheti vs FC Gori?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Aragvi Dusheti win (49%). Probabilities: Aragvi Dusheti 49%, draw 27%, FC Gori 23%.
How many goals are expected in Aragvi Dusheti vs FC Gori?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Aragvi Dusheti 1.42 · FC Gori 0.89), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Aragvi Dusheti vs FC Gori?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.