Football · Georgia First League · 06/09, 14:30

Prediction: FC Gareji vs FC Sioni Bolnisi

Team pages: FC Gareji · FC Sioni Bolnisi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

FC Gareji1.4

FC Sioni Bolnisi1.19

1X2

41% 28% 31%

FC Gareji Draw FC Sioni Bolnisi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gareji 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLDLWW

FC Sioni Bolnisi 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLWLLWW

Head-to-head

FC Gareji 2–2–2 FC Sioni Bolnisi (6 last)

FC Sioni Bolnisi1-1FC Gareji
FC Gareji2-0FC Sioni Bolnisi
FC Sioni Bolnisi2-2FC Gareji
FC Gareji3-0FC Sioni Bolnisi
FC Sioni Bolnisi2-0FC Gareji
FC Gareji3-4FC Sioni Bolnisi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gareji 1529 · FC Sioni Bolnisi 1489

	FC Gareji	Draw	FC Sioni Bolnisi
Our model	41%	29%	31%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Gareji (rating 1529 vs 1489).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gareji	FC Sioni Bolnisi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.2	1.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:45 +30’	2.20	3.20	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gareji 2–2–2 FC Sioni Bolnisi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Georgia First League	FC Sioni Bolnisi	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Gareji
07/04/26 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Sioni Bolnisi
22/11/24 Georgia First League	FC Sioni Bolnisi	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Gareji
14/09/24 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Sioni Bolnisi
28/05/24 Georgia First League	FC Sioni Bolnisi	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Gareji
13/04/24 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	3-4 HT 2-2	FC Sioni Bolnisi

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	23	13	7	3	29	17	46
2	FC Telavi	23	11	7	5	25	18	40
3	SFC Shturmi	23	8	9	6	21	19	33
4	Aragvi Dusheti	23	9	5	9	24	28	32
5	FC Sioni Bolnisi	23	8	7	8	29	26	31
6	Merani Martvili	23	8	7	8	25	25	31
7	FC Samtredia	23	8	4	11	34	38	28
8	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	23	7	7	9	25	31	28
9	FC Gori	23	5	7	11	20	28	22
10	Kolkheti Poti	23	4	8	11	29	31	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gareji	FC Sioni Bolnisi
Merani Martvili	2-1 W	2-0 W
Kolkheti Poti	3-2 W	0-0 D
Aragvi Dusheti	0-2 L	2-3 L
FC Telavi	0-0 D	2-1 W
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	1-2 L	1-0 W
SFC Shturmi	0-0 D	0-1 L
FC Gori	3-1 W	1-4 L
FC Samtredia	3-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Sioni Bolnisi (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Gareji

WDWWDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
22/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
15/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
22/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
17/06	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
13/06	FC Gori Georgia First League	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
30/05	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	2-0	3-2	4	8	W
24/05	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
20/05	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W

FC Sioni Bolnisi

LDDWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
22/08	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
15/08	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
08/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-1	1-4	4	2	L
22/06	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-1	3-2	3	4	W
17/06	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-2	2-3	4	6	L
13/06	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
30/05	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
24/05	FC Gareji Georgia First League	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
20/05	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-1	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gareji vs FC Sioni Bolnisi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Gareji win (41%). Probabilities: FC Gareji 41%, draw 28%, FC Sioni Bolnisi 31%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gareji vs FC Sioni Bolnisi?

The model expects 2.58 goals (FC Gareji 1.4 · FC Sioni Bolnisi 1.19), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gareji vs FC Sioni Bolnisi?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.