Football · Georgia First League · 16/09, 14:00

Prediction: Merani Martvili vs FC Sioni Bolnisi

Team pages: Merani Martvili · FC Sioni Bolnisi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Merani Martvili1.32

FC Sioni Bolnisi1.1

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Merani Martvili Draw FC Sioni Bolnisi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Merani Martvili 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLDLLLW

FC Sioni Bolnisi 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLWWDD

Head-to-head

Merani Martvili 1–2–3 FC Sioni Bolnisi (6 last)

FC Sioni Bolnisi2-0Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili2-1FC Sioni Bolnisi
FC Sioni Bolnisi1-0Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili2-4FC Sioni Bolnisi
FC Sioni Bolnisi2-2Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili1-1FC Sioni Bolnisi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Merani Martvili 1443 · FC Sioni Bolnisi 1503

	Merani Martvili	Draw	FC Sioni Bolnisi
Our model	40%	30%	30%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Sioni Bolnisi (rating 1443 vs 1503).
H2H favours FC Sioni Bolnisi: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Merani Martvili	FC Sioni Bolnisi
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.2	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:45 +14’	2.15	3.20	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Merani Martvili 1–2–3 FC Sioni Bolnisi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Georgia First League	FC Sioni Bolnisi	2-0 HT 1-0	Merani Martvili
22/04/26 Georgia First League	Merani Martvili	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Sioni Bolnisi
21/10/25 Georgia First League	FC Sioni Bolnisi	1-0 HT 0-0	Merani Martvili
25/08/25 Georgia First League	Merani Martvili	2-4 HT 2-3	FC Sioni Bolnisi
09/05/25 Georgia First League	FC Sioni Bolnisi	2-2 HT 0-1	Merani Martvili
14/03/25 Georgia First League	Merani Martvili	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Sioni Bolnisi

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	25	13	8	4	33	26	47
2	FC Telavi	25	11	8	6	27	23	41
3	SFC Shturmi	25	10	9	6	27	22	39
4	Merani Martvili	25	9	7	9	28	28	34
5	FC Samtredia	25	10	4	11	43	39	34
6	FC Sioni Bolnisi	25	8	9	8	33	30	33
7	Aragvi Dusheti	25	9	5	11	28	35	32
8	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	25	7	7	11	27	36	28
9	FC Gori	25	6	8	11	25	32	26
10	Kolkheti Poti	25	5	9	11	32	32	24

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Merani Martvili	FC Sioni Bolnisi
Aragvi Dusheti	3-1 W	2-3 L
Kolkheti Poti	0-2 L	1-1 D
FC Gareji	1-2 L	3-3 D
FC Telavi	0-1 L	2-1 W
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	0-0 D	1-0 W
SFC Shturmi	1-2 L	0-1 L
FC Gori	0-2 L	1-4 L
FC Samtredia	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Sioni Bolnisi (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Merani Martvili

DLWLLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
06/09	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
29/08	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
22/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
15/08	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
08/08	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
22/06	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
17/06	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
13/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
29/05	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D

FC Sioni Bolnisi

DWLWLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
06/09	FC Gareji Georgia First League	1-1	3-3	5	6	D
29/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
22/08	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
15/08	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
08/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-1	1-4	4	2	L
22/06	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-1	3-2	3	4	W
17/06	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-2	2-3	4	6	L
13/06	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
30/05	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	10	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Merani Martvili vs FC Sioni Bolnisi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Merani Martvili win (41%). Probabilities: Merani Martvili 41%, draw 29%, FC Sioni Bolnisi 30%.

How many goals are expected in Merani Martvili vs FC Sioni Bolnisi?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Merani Martvili 1.32 · FC Sioni Bolnisi 1.1), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Merani Martvili vs FC Sioni Bolnisi?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.