Football · Georgia First League · 12/09, 17:00
Prediction: FC Samtredia vs FC Gareji
Team pages: FC Samtredia · FC Gareji
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
FC Samtredia1.86
FC Gareji1.29
1X2
FC Samtredia
Draw
FC Gareji
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Samtredia
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
FC Gareji
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Samtredia
1–1–4
FC Gareji
(6 last)
- FC Gareji3-2FC Samtredia
- FC Samtredia0-1FC Gareji
- FC Gareji5-0FC Samtredia
- FC Samtredia0-0FC Gareji
- FC Gareji3-1FC Samtredia
- FC Samtredia4-1FC Gareji
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Samtredia 1551 · FC Gareji 1521
| FC Samtredia | Draw | FC Gareji | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Gareji: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Samtredia | FC Gareji | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.5 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.5 | 1.2 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Samtredia 1–1–4 FC Gareji
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 Georgia First League | FC Gareji | 3-2 HT 2-0 | FC Samtredia |
| 18/04/26 Georgia First League | FC Samtredia | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FC Gareji |
| 27/07/24 Georgia Cup | FC Gareji | 5-0 HT 3-0 | FC Samtredia |
| 10/07/24 Club Friendly List | FC Samtredia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Gareji |
| 10/12/23 Georgia Erovnuli Liga | FC Gareji | 3-1 HT 2-1 | FC Samtredia |
| 06/12/23 Georgia Play-Offs | FC Samtredia | 4-1 HT 4-0 | FC Gareji |
Standings · Georgia First League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Gareji | 24 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 20 | 47 |
| 2 | FC Telavi | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 40 |
| 3 | SFC Shturmi | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 25 | 22 | 36 |
| 4 | Aragvi Dusheti | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 32 | 32 |
| 5 | FC Sioni Bolnisi | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 32 | 29 | 32 |
| 6 | Merani Martvili | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 27 | 31 |
| 7 | FC Samtredia | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 37 | 38 | 31 |
| 8 | Odishi 1919 Zugdidi | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 34 | 28 |
| 9 | FC Gori | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 30 | 25 |
| 10 | Kolkheti Poti | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 31 | 31 | 23 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Samtredia | FC Gareji |
|---|---|---|
| FC Telavi | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Odishi 1919 Zugdidi | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| SFC Shturmi | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| FC Gori | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Aragvi Dusheti | 4-2 W | 0-2 L |
| FC Sioni Bolnisi | 2-3 L | 3-3 D |
| Merani Martvili | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Kolkheti Poti | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Samtredia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | FC Telavi Georgia First League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 28/08 | Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | SFC Shturmi Georgia First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | FC Gori Georgia First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/06 | Merani Martvili Georgia First League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 13/06 | Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | FC Gareji Georgia First League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | FC Telavi Georgia First League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
FC Gareji
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Merani Martvili Georgia First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | FC Telavi Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 22/06 | Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 17/06 | SFC Shturmi Georgia First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 13/06 | FC Gori Georgia First League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | FC Samtredia Georgia First League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Samtredia vs FC Gareji?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Samtredia win (50%). Probabilities: FC Samtredia 50%, draw 25%, FC Gareji 26%.
How many goals are expected in FC Samtredia vs FC Gareji?
The model expects 3.15 goals (FC Samtredia 1.86 · FC Gareji 1.29), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Samtredia vs FC Gareji?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.