Football · Georgia First League · 16/09, 14:00

Prediction: FC Gareji vs FC Gori

Team pages: FC Gareji · FC Gori

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

FC Gareji1.81

FC Gori1.22

1X2

50% 25% 24%

FC Gareji Draw FC Gori

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gareji 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Gori 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLLWWD

Head-to-head

FC Gareji 3–1 FC Gori (4 last)

FC Gori1-3FC Gareji
FC Gareji1-0FC Gori
FC Gareji3-2FC Gori
FC Gori3-1FC Gareji

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gareji 1506 · FC Gori 1516

	FC Gareji	Draw	FC Gori
Our model	50%	25%	25%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Gareji: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gareji	FC Gori
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.4	1.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:27 +2’	1.80	3.50	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gareji 3–0–1 FC Gori

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Georgia First League	FC Gori	1-3 HT 1-2	FC Gareji
22/04/26 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Gori
09/02/23 Club Friendly List	FC Gareji	3-2 HT 3-1	FC Gori
06/10/20 Georgia Liga 3	FC Gori	3-1 HT 2-0	FC Gareji

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	25	13	8	4	33	26	47
2	FC Telavi	25	11	8	6	27	23	41
3	SFC Shturmi	25	10	9	6	27	22	39
4	Merani Martvili	25	9	7	9	28	28	34
5	FC Samtredia	25	10	4	11	43	39	34
6	FC Sioni Bolnisi	25	8	9	8	33	30	33
7	Aragvi Dusheti	25	9	5	11	28	35	32
8	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	25	7	7	11	27	36	28
9	FC Gori	25	6	8	11	25	32	26
10	Kolkheti Poti	25	5	9	11	32	32	24

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gareji	FC Gori
FC Samtredia	1-6 L	0-1 L
FC Sioni Bolnisi	3-3 D	4-1 W
Merani Martvili	2-1 W	2-0 W
Kolkheti Poti	3-2 W	1-1 D
Aragvi Dusheti	0-2 L	0-1 L
FC Telavi	0-0 D	2-2 D
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	1-2 L	3-2 W
SFC Shturmi	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Gori (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Gareji

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-3	1-6	2	5	L
06/09	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	3-3	3	6	D
29/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
22/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
15/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
22/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
17/06	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
13/06	FC Gori Georgia First League	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
30/05	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	2-0	3-2	4	8	W

FC Gori

LLDWWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Telavi Georgia First League	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
06/09	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-1	3-2	2	3	W
29/08	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	3-1	2	3	W
22/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
15/08	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
08/08	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-0	4-1	5	2	W
22/06	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
17/06	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
13/06	FC Gareji Georgia First League	1-2	1-3	4	5	L
30/05	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gareji vs FC Gori?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Gareji win (50%). Probabilities: FC Gareji 50%, draw 25%, FC Gori 24%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gareji vs FC Gori?

The model expects 3.03 goals (FC Gareji 1.81 · FC Gori 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gareji vs FC Gori?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.