Football · Georgia First League · 07/09, 18:00

Prediction: FC Telavi vs FC Samtredia

Team pages: FC Telavi · FC Samtredia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

FC Telavi1.45

FC Samtredia0.9

1X2

49% 28% 23%

FC Telavi Draw FC Samtredia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Telavi 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDDWL

FC Samtredia 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Telavi 4–1–1 FC Samtredia (6 last)

FC Samtredia0-3FC Telavi
FC Telavi2-0FC Samtredia
FC Telavi5-2FC Samtredia
FC Samtredia2-1FC Telavi
FC Telavi0-0FC Samtredia
FC Samtredia1-2FC Telavi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Telavi 1566 · FC Samtredia 1534

	FC Telavi	Draw	FC Samtredia
Our model	49%	29%	22%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Telavi: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Telavi	FC Samtredia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.4	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:54 +23’	1.80	3.40	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Telavi 4–1–1 FC Samtredia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Georgia First League	FC Samtredia	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Telavi
07/04/26 Georgia First League	FC Telavi	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Samtredia
02/12/24 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Telavi	5-2 HT 2-1	FC Samtredia
26/09/24 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Samtredia	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Telavi
28/05/24 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Telavi	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Samtredia
11/04/24 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Samtredia	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Telavi

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	23	13	7	3	29	17	46
2	FC Telavi	23	11	7	5	25	18	40
3	SFC Shturmi	23	8	9	6	21	19	33
4	Aragvi Dusheti	23	9	5	9	24	28	32
5	FC Sioni Bolnisi	23	8	7	8	29	26	31
6	Merani Martvili	23	8	7	8	25	25	31
7	FC Samtredia	23	8	4	11	34	38	28
8	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	23	7	7	9	25	31	28
9	FC Gori	23	5	7	11	20	28	22
10	Kolkheti Poti	23	4	8	11	29	31	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Telavi	FC Samtredia
FC Sioni Bolnisi	1-2 L	2-3 L
Merani Martvili	1-0 W	1-2 L
Kolkheti Poti	1-1 D	2-2 D
FC Gareji	0-0 D	2-3 L
Aragvi Dusheti	1-0 W	4-2 W
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	1-0 W	3-0 W
SFC Shturmi	2-0 W	1-0 W
FC Gori	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Telavi (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Telavi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
22/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
15/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
08/08	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/06	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
17/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
13/06	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/05	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
24/05	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
20/05	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W

FC Samtredia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
22/08	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
15/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
08/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-1	4-2	1	4	W
22/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
17/06	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
13/06	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	2-2	2	6	D
30/05	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-2	2-3	6	8	L
24/05	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-2	0-3	10	5	L
20/05	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Telavi vs FC Samtredia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Telavi win (49%). Probabilities: FC Telavi 49%, draw 28%, FC Samtredia 23%.

How many goals are expected in FC Telavi vs FC Samtredia?

The model expects 2.35 goals (FC Telavi 1.45 · FC Samtredia 0.9), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Telavi vs FC Samtredia?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.