Football · Georgia First League · 16/09, 17:00

Prediction: FC Telavi vs SFC Shturmi

Team pages: FC Telavi · SFC Shturmi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

FC Telavi1.14

SFC Shturmi0.88

1X2

42% 31% 28%

FC Telavi Draw SFC Shturmi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Telavi 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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SFC Shturmi 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Telavi 1–1–0 SFC Shturmi (2 last)

SFC Shturmi0-2FC Telavi
FC Telavi1-1SFC Shturmi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Telavi 1520 · SFC Shturmi 1514

	FC Telavi	Draw	SFC Shturmi
Our model	40%	33%	27%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Telavi	SFC Shturmi
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +58’	2.10	3.10	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Telavi 1–1–0 SFC Shturmi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Georgia First League	SFC Shturmi	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Telavi
22/04/26 Georgia First League	FC Telavi	1-1 HT 0-0	SFC Shturmi

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	25	13	8	4	33	26	47
2	FC Telavi	25	11	8	6	27	23	41
3	SFC Shturmi	25	10	9	6	27	22	39
4	Merani Martvili	25	9	7	9	28	28	34
5	FC Samtredia	25	10	4	11	43	39	34
6	FC Sioni Bolnisi	25	8	9	8	33	30	33
7	Aragvi Dusheti	25	9	5	11	28	35	32
8	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	25	7	7	11	27	36	28
9	FC Gori	25	6	8	11	25	32	26
10	Kolkheti Poti	25	5	9	11	32	32	24

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Telavi	SFC Shturmi
FC Gori	2-2 D	1-3 L
FC Samtredia	0-3 L	0-1 L
FC Sioni Bolnisi	1-2 L	1-0 W
Merani Martvili	1-0 W	2-1 W
Kolkheti Poti	1-1 D	0-0 D
FC Gareji	0-0 D	0-0 D
Aragvi Dusheti	1-0 W	4-3 W
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SFC Shturmi (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Telavi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-1	2-2	5	6	D
07/09	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-0	0-3	8	10	L
29/08	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
22/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
15/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
08/08	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/06	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
17/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
13/06	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/05	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

SFC Shturmi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
06/09	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-0	4-3	4	4	W
29/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
22/08	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
15/08	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
08/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
22/06	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/06	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
13/06	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
30/05	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-2	1-2	8	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Telavi vs SFC Shturmi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Telavi win (42%). Probabilities: FC Telavi 42%, draw 31%, SFC Shturmi 28%.

How many goals are expected in FC Telavi vs SFC Shturmi?

The model expects 2.03 goals (FC Telavi 1.14 · SFC Shturmi 0.88), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Telavi vs SFC Shturmi?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.