Football · Georgia First League · 06/09, 18:00

Prediction: Aragvi Dusheti vs SFC Shturmi

Team pages: Aragvi Dusheti · SFC Shturmi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.96Total

Aragvi Dusheti1

SFC Shturmi0.96

1X2

36% 30% 34%

Aragvi Dusheti Draw SFC Shturmi

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Aragvi Dusheti 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLLWWD

SFC Shturmi 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLDDWWLL

Head-to-head

Aragvi Dusheti 0–3–3 SFC Shturmi (6 last)

SFC Shturmi2-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti0-2SFC Shturmi
SFC Shturmi0-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti1-1SFC Shturmi
Aragvi Dusheti1-1SFC Shturmi
SFC Shturmi2-1Aragvi Dusheti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aragvi Dusheti 1533 · SFC Shturmi 1507

	Aragvi Dusheti	Draw	SFC Shturmi
Our model	34%	34%	32%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SFC Shturmi: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aragvi Dusheti	SFC Shturmi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.2	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.25

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:36 +6’	2.40	3.25	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aragvi Dusheti 0–3–3 SFC Shturmi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Georgia First League	SFC Shturmi	2-0 HT 0-0	Aragvi Dusheti
07/04/26 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	0-2 HT 0-2	SFC Shturmi
05/09/25 Georgia Liga 3	SFC Shturmi	0-0 HT 0-0	Aragvi Dusheti
03/04/25 Georgia Liga 3	Aragvi Dusheti	1-1 HT 1-0	SFC Shturmi
08/12/24 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	1-1 HT 0-0	SFC Shturmi
30/09/24 Georgia First League	SFC Shturmi	2-1 HT 1-0	Aragvi Dusheti

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	23	13	7	3	29	17	46
2	FC Telavi	23	11	7	5	25	18	40
3	SFC Shturmi	23	8	9	6	21	19	33
4	Aragvi Dusheti	23	9	5	9	24	28	32
5	FC Sioni Bolnisi	23	8	7	8	29	26	31
6	Merani Martvili	23	8	7	8	25	25	31
7	FC Samtredia	23	8	4	11	34	38	28
8	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	23	7	7	9	25	31	28
9	FC Gori	23	5	7	11	20	28	22
10	Kolkheti Poti	23	4	8	11	29	31	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aragvi Dusheti	SFC Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti	1-1 D	0-0 D
FC Gori	1-0 W	1-3 L
FC Gareji	2-0 W	0-0 D
FC Samtredia	2-4 L	0-1 L
FC Telavi	0-1 L	0-2 L
FC Sioni Bolnisi	3-2 W	1-0 W
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	1-1 D	1-2 L
Merani Martvili	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Aragvi Dusheti (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aragvi Dusheti

WLDDWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
22/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/08	FC Gareji Georgia First League	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-2	2-4	4	4	L
22/06	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
17/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	2-2	3-2	1	6	W
13/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
29/05	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
24/05	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
20/05	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	2-1	5	3	W

SFC Shturmi

WWLLDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
22/08	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
15/08	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
08/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
22/06	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/06	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
13/06	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
30/05	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-2	1-2	8	8	L
24/05	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/05	FC Gori Georgia First League	1-0	2-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aragvi Dusheti vs SFC Shturmi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aragvi Dusheti win (36%). Probabilities: Aragvi Dusheti 36%, draw 30%, SFC Shturmi 34%.

How many goals are expected in Aragvi Dusheti vs SFC Shturmi?

The model expects 1.96 goals (Aragvi Dusheti 1 · SFC Shturmi 0.96), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aragvi Dusheti vs SFC Shturmi?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.