Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 01/08, 15:00

Prediction: Ørn Horten vs Rælingen

Team pages: Ørn Horten · Rælingen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.29Total

Ørn Horten2.75

Rælingen1.54

1X2

63% 18% 20%

Ørn Horten Draw Rælingen

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ørn Horten 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDLLWW

Rælingen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDLWLL

Head-to-head

Ørn Horten 0–1–0 Rælingen (1 last)

Rælingen0-0Ørn Horten

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ørn Horten 1532 · Rælingen 1478

	Ørn Horten	Draw	Rælingen
Our model	62%	18%	19%
Market	63%	17%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 4.29 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ørn Horten (rating 1532 vs 1478).
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ørn Horten	Rælingen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	2 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 7.9	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X5.25

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:31 +1’	1.42	5.25	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ørn Horten 0–1–0 Rælingen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Rælingen	0-0 HT 0-0	Ørn Horten

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	13	10	2	1	52	19	32
2	Gjøvik-Lyn	13	8	2	3	17	8	26
3	Rade IL	13	8	1	4	48	25	25
4	Elverum	13	8	1	4	34	22	25
5	Ørn Horten	13	6	4	3	26	21	22
6	Oppsal	13	6	2	5	23	18	20
7	Lyn 1896 II	13	6	2	5	26	27	20
8	Drøbak/Frogn	13	5	4	4	24	16	19
9	Sandefjord 2	13	6	1	6	36	30	19
10	Rælingen	13	5	2	6	27	37	17
11	Fram	13	3	3	7	17	27	12
12	Sarpsborg 2	13	3	2	8	21	34	11
13	Brumunddal	13	2	2	9	15	48	8
14	Bjørkelangen	13	1	0	12	9	43	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ørn Horten	Rælingen
Gjøvik-Lyn	0-3 L	2-1 W
Oppsal	2-0 W	1-3 L
Bjørkelangen	4-2 W	3-1 W
Fram	1-1 D	1-5 L
Brumunddal	6-1 W	4-1 W
Rade IL	1-1 D	2-7 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ørn Horten (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ørn Horten

DWDWWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	3-2	7	0	W
27/06	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	4-3	4	3	W
20/06	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-3	7	4	L
13/06	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
31/05	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
23/05	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
16/05	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	4-2	6	4	W
10/05	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-1	10	7	D
02/05	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	6-1	12	0	W
25/04	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Rælingen

WWLWLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	2-4	1	3	L
27/06	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-3	5	2	L
20/06	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	3-1	9	2	W
13/06	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-5	2-7	1	1	L
31/05	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
25/05	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	1-5	2	3	L
14/05	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-1	4-1	6	3	W
11/05	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-3	5	3	L
02/05	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
25/04	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	4-3	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ørn Horten vs Rælingen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ørn Horten win (63%). Probabilities: Ørn Horten 63%, draw 18%, Rælingen 20%.

How many goals are expected in Ørn Horten vs Rælingen?

The model expects 4.29 goals (Ørn Horten 2.75 · Rælingen 1.54), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ørn Horten vs Rælingen?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.