Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 10/08, 18:00

Prediction: Lyn 1896 II vs Fram

Team pages: Lyn 1896 II · Fram

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.16Total

Lyn 1896 II2.36

Fram1.8

1X2

50% 21% 29%

Lyn 1896 II Draw Fram

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lyn 1896 II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWLWDW

Fram 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLLDWL

Head-to-head

Lyn 1896 II 1–0 Fram (1 last)

Fram0-1Lyn 1896 II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lyn 1896 II 1513 · Fram 1454

	Lyn 1896 II	Draw	Fram
Our model	50%	21%	29%
Market	50%	21%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 4.16 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lyn 1896 II (rating 1513 vs 1454).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lyn 1896 II	Fram
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.3	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.33

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.00 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:42 +29’	1.80	4.33	3.00
14:38 +8’	1.80	4.33	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lyn 1896 II 1–0–0 Fram

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Fram	0-1 HT 0-0	Lyn 1896 II

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	15	12	2	1	56	20	38
2	Elverum	15	10	1	4	38	23	31
3	Gjøvik-Lyn	15	9	2	4	20	11	29
4	Rade IL	14	9	1	4	56	26	28
5	Oppsal	15	7	3	5	26	20	24
6	Lyn 1896 II	14	7	2	5	35	28	23
7	Ørn Horten	15	6	4	5	26	24	22
8	Rælingen	14	6	2	6	29	37	20
9	Drøbak/Frogn	14	5	4	5	25	18	19
10	Sandefjord 2	14	6	1	7	37	33	19
11	Fram	14	3	3	8	18	30	12
12	Sarpsborg 2	14	3	3	8	23	36	12
13	Brumunddal	14	2	2	10	16	57	8
14	Bjørkelangen	15	1	0	14	10	52	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lyn 1896 II	Fram
Lillehammer	3-5 L	0-4 L
Drøbak/Frogn	1-2 L	1-1 D
Sarpsborg 2	3-6 L	1-2 L
Rælingen	3-1 W	5-1 W
Sandefjord 2	0-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fram (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lyn 1896 II

LWLLDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-1	9-1	–	–	W
27/07	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	2-2	2	4	D
28/06	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	5-3	3	4	W
20/06	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-3	3-5	5	3	L
15/06	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/06	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
26/05	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
19/05	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-2	3-6	6	3	L
11/05	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	3-1	8	3	W
04/05	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	0-3	10	4	L

Fram

LDLWLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
25/07	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
27/06	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
15/06	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
31/05	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	0-4	5	2	L
25/05	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	5-1	10	3	W
14/05	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
10/05	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
02/05	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-3	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lyn 1896 II vs Fram?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lyn 1896 II win (50%). Probabilities: Lyn 1896 II 50%, draw 21%, Fram 29%.

How many goals are expected in Lyn 1896 II vs Fram?

The model expects 4.16 goals (Lyn 1896 II 2.36 · Fram 1.8), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Lyn 1896 II vs Fram?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.