Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 10/08, 18:00

Prediction: Drøbak/Frogn vs Sandefjord 2

Team pages: Drøbak/Frogn · Sandefjord 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

Drøbak/Frogn2.15

Sandefjord 21.87

1X2

45% 22% 34%

Drøbak/Frogn Draw Sandefjord 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Drøbak/Frogn 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLDWL

Sandefjord 2 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDLLL

Head-to-head

Drøbak/Frogn 1–0 Sandefjord 2 (1 last)

Sandefjord 22-3Drøbak/Frogn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Drøbak/Frogn 1529 · Sandefjord 2 1464

	Drøbak/Frogn	Draw	Sandefjord 2
Our model	44%	22%	34%
Market	45%	21%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Drøbak/Frogn (rating 1529 vs 1464).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Drøbak/Frogn	Sandefjord 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	2.5 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	1.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 5.1	2.4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.20

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +3’	2.00	4.20	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Drøbak/Frogn 1–0–0 Sandefjord 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Sandefjord 2	2-3 HT 0-1	Drøbak/Frogn

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	15	12	2	1	56	20	38
2	Elverum	15	10	1	4	38	23	31
3	Gjøvik-Lyn	15	9	2	4	20	11	29
4	Rade IL	14	9	1	4	56	26	28
5	Oppsal	15	7	3	5	26	20	24
6	Lyn 1896 II	14	7	2	5	35	28	23
7	Ørn Horten	15	6	4	5	26	24	22
8	Rælingen	14	6	2	6	29	37	20
9	Drøbak/Frogn	14	5	4	5	25	18	19
10	Sandefjord 2	14	6	1	7	37	33	19
11	Fram	14	3	3	8	18	30	12
12	Sarpsborg 2	14	3	3	8	23	36	12
13	Brumunddal	14	2	2	10	16	57	8
14	Bjørkelangen	15	1	0	14	10	52	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Drøbak/Frogn	Sandefjord 2
Brumunddal	7-1 W	2-2 D
Fram	1-1 D	4-0 W
Rade IL	1-2 L	1-3 L
Gjøvik-Lyn	0-0 D	1-3 L
Bjørkelangen	3-0 W	3-1 W
Lyn 1896 II	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Drøbak/Frogn (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Drøbak/Frogn

DWWWWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
25/07	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	7-1	8	2	W
27/06	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
13/06	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
06/06	Rakkestad Norway Cup	1-0	3-0	1	1	W
31/05	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/05	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	2-1	9	5	W
14/05	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	3-2	3	1	W
09/05	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	2-2	6	2	D

Sandefjord 2

WLLWWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-3	2	1	L
25/07	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-3	3-5	–	–	L
27/06	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	3-4	9	3	L
21/06	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-2	12	2	D
13/06	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	3-4	4	5	L
06/06	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	3-1	8	6	W
31/05	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	4-0	2	2	W
14/05	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	2-3	8	1	L
10/05	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
04/05	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	3-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Drøbak/Frogn vs Sandefjord 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Drøbak/Frogn win (45%). Probabilities: Drøbak/Frogn 45%, draw 22%, Sandefjord 2 34%.

How many goals are expected in Drøbak/Frogn vs Sandefjord 2?

The model expects 4.03 goals (Drøbak/Frogn 2.15 · Sandefjord 2 1.87), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Drøbak/Frogn vs Sandefjord 2?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.