Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 09/08, 18:00

Prediction: Sarpsborg 2 vs Brumunddal

Team pages: Sarpsborg 2 · Brumunddal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.49Total

Sarpsborg 22.97

Brumunddal1.53

1X2

66% 17% 17%

Sarpsborg 2 Draw Brumunddal

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sarpsborg 2 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Brumunddal 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sarpsborg 2 0–1–0 Brumunddal (1 last)

Brumunddal3-3Sarpsborg 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarpsborg 2 1467 · Brumunddal 1382

	Sarpsborg 2	Draw	Brumunddal
Our model	66%	17%	17%
Market	66%	17%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 4.49 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarpsborg 2 (rating 1467 vs 1382).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarpsborg 2	Brumunddal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.2	1 / 5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.4	0.6 / 2.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.5 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.25

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.82

Under 4.251.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.27▼	Bet365 1.27
X	5.25 → 5.75▲	Pinn 6.23
2	5.50 → 6.00▲	Pinn 7.08 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.8% Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:48 +2’	1.33	5.25	5.50
20:23 +7’	1.33	5.25	5.25▼
16:24 +1’	1.27▼	5.75▲	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:07 +1’	1.24	5.84	6.51
16:25	1.23▼	6.23▲	7.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarpsborg 2 0–1–0 Brumunddal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Brumunddal	3-3 HT 2-2	Sarpsborg 2

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	15	12	2	1	56	20	38
2	Elverum	15	10	1	4	38	23	31
3	Gjøvik-Lyn	15	9	2	4	20	11	29
4	Rade IL	14	9	1	4	56	26	28
5	Oppsal	15	7	3	5	26	20	24
6	Lyn 1896 II	14	7	2	5	35	28	23
7	Ørn Horten	15	6	4	5	26	24	22
8	Rælingen	14	6	2	6	29	37	20
9	Drøbak/Frogn	14	5	4	5	25	18	19
10	Sandefjord 2	14	6	1	7	37	33	19
11	Fram	14	3	3	8	18	30	12
12	Sarpsborg 2	14	3	3	8	23	36	12
13	Brumunddal	14	2	2	10	16	57	8
14	Bjørkelangen	15	1	0	14	10	52	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarpsborg 2	Brumunddal
Oppsal	2-2 D	1-4 L
Ørn Horten	2-3 L	1-6 L
Lyn 1896 II	6-3 W	1-9 L
Gjøvik-Lyn	0-1 L	0-3 L
Drøbak/Frogn	1-0 W	1-7 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Sarpsborg 2 (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarpsborg 2

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
27/07	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	2-3	4	0	L
25/06	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
20/06	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
13/06	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
30/05	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
26/05	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	1-5	0	2	L
19/05	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-3	6-3	9	3	W
10/05	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
04/05	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-0	6	2	W

Brumunddal

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-3	1-9	–	–	L
25/07	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	1-7	2	2	L
25/06	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
21/06	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
13/06	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
31/05	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-4	5	2	L
25/05	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-4	0-8	–	–	L
14/05	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-3	1-4	1	3	L
09/05	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
02/05	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	1-6	2	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarpsborg 2 vs Brumunddal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarpsborg 2 win (66%). Probabilities: Sarpsborg 2 66%, draw 17%, Brumunddal 17%.

How many goals are expected in Sarpsborg 2 vs Brumunddal?

The model expects 4.49 goals (Sarpsborg 2 2.97 · Brumunddal 1.53), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 2 vs Brumunddal?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.