Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 09/08, 08:00

Prediction: Logan Lightning vs St George Willawong FC

Team pages: Logan Lightning · St George Willawong FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Logan Lightning2

St George Willawong FC1.24

1X2

55% 22% 23%

Logan Lightning Draw St George Willawong FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Logan Lightning 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWLWDL

St George Willawong FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWWLWL

Head-to-head

Logan Lightning 1–1–3 St George Willawong FC (5 last)

Logan Lightning0-0St George Willawong FC
St George Willawong FC0-2Logan Lightning
St George Willawong FC2-1Logan Lightning
St George Willawong FC3-1Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning1-2St George Willawong FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Logan Lightning 1501 · St George Willawong FC 1437

	Logan Lightning	Draw	St George Willawong FC
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	55%	21%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Logan Lightning (rating 1501 vs 1437).
H2H favours St George Willawong FC: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Logan Lightning	St George Willawong FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	0.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/67/22%	33/11/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.20

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
07:48 +2’	1.61	4.20	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Logan Lightning 1–1–3 St George Willawong FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/26 Australia Cup Qualifying	Logan Lightning	0-0	St George Willawong FC
10/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League	St George Willawong FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Logan Lightning
31/08/24 Australia Queensland Premier League	St George Willawong FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Logan Lightning
16/06/24 Australia Queensland Premier League	St George Willawong FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Logan Lightning
16/03/24 Australia Queensland Premier League	Logan Lightning	1-2 HT 1-1	St George Willawong FC

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brisbane Strikers	20	16	3	1	47	15	51
2	Broadbeach United	20	15	4	1	49	18	49
3	Ipswich FC	20	9	5	6	32	29	32
4	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	20	8	7	5	38	26	31
5	Robina City	20	8	5	7	34	27	29
6	Caboolture FC	20	8	4	8	37	34	28
7	Redlands United	20	7	6	7	38	35	27
8	Holland Park Hawks	20	8	3	9	35	39	27
9	Logan Lightning	20	7	3	10	35	38	24
10	North Star	20	4	3	13	19	40	15
11	St George Willawong FC	20	4	1	15	11	42	13
12	Capalaba FC	20	3	2	15	20	52	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Logan Lightning	St George Willawong FC
Broadbeach United	0-1 L	1-4 L
Sunshine Coast Wanderers	2-2 D	0-8 L
Brisbane Strikers	2-3 L	0-1 L
Redlands United	5-1 W	0-3 L
Caboolture FC	1-3 L	1-0 W
Holland Park Hawks	2-3 L	1-2 L
Robina City	0-1 L	0-2 L
Capalaba FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Logan Lightning (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Logan Lightning

DWLLLWLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
18/07	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
11/07	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	3-2	4	1	W
04/07	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-3	9	3	L
30/06	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	3-1	5-1	2	2	W
27/06	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	1-3	11	2	L
23/06	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	0-2	2-3	7	1	L
20/06	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
05/06	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	0	W
27/05	St George Willawong FC Australia Cup Qualifying	–	0-0	–	–	D

St George Willawong FC

DLLLLWWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
18/07	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	8	W
11/07	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
04/07	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
27/06	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
19/06	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
13/06	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	1-4	1	3	L
07/06	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
03/06	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-3	0-8	7	1	L
27/05	Logan Lightning Australia Cup Qualifying	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Logan Lightning vs St George Willawong FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Logan Lightning win (55%). Probabilities: Logan Lightning 55%, draw 22%, St George Willawong FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Logan Lightning vs St George Willawong FC?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Logan Lightning 2 · St George Willawong FC 1.24), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Logan Lightning vs St George Willawong FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.