Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 15/08, 08:15

Prediction: St George Willawong FC vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers

Team pages: St George Willawong FC · Sunshine Coast Wanderers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

St George Willawong FC1.11

Sunshine Coast Wanderers2.01

1X2

20% 22% 58%

St George Willawong FC Draw Sunshine Coast Wanderers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

St George Willawong FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLWLL

Sunshine Coast Wanderers 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLDDW

Head-to-head

St George Willawong FC 2–1 Sunshine Coast Wanderers (3 last)

Sunshine Coast Wanderers8-0St George Willawong FC
St George Willawong FC3-2Sunshine Coast Wanderers
Sunshine Coast Wanderers2-3St George Willawong FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St George Willawong FC 1447 · Sunshine Coast Wanderers 1542

	St George Willawong FC	Draw	Sunshine Coast Wanderers
Our model	19%	23%	57%
Market	21%	21%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sunshine Coast Wanderers (rating 1447 vs 1542).
H2H favours St George Willawong FC: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St George Willawong FC	Sunshine Coast Wanderers
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.4	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	3.3 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.33

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:31 +3’	4.33	4.33	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St George Willawong FC 2–0–1 Sunshine Coast Wanderers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/06/26 Australia Queensland Premier League	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	8-0 HT 3-0	St George Willawong FC
10/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland	St George Willawong FC	3-2 HT 3-0	Sunshine Coast Wanderers
17/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	2-3 HT 1-3	St George Willawong FC

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brisbane Strikers	21	17	3	1	50	15	54
2	Broadbeach United	21	15	4	2	50	20	49
3	Ipswich FC	21	10	5	6	35	29	35
4	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	21	9	7	5	40	27	34
5	Caboolture FC	21	9	4	8	44	36	31
6	Robina City	21	8	5	8	34	28	29
7	Logan Lightning	21	8	3	10	39	39	27
8	Redlands United	21	7	6	8	38	38	27
9	Holland Park Hawks	21	8	3	10	37	46	27
10	North Star	21	5	3	13	20	40	18
11	St George Willawong FC	21	4	1	16	12	46	13
12	Capalaba FC	21	3	2	16	20	55	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St George Willawong FC	Sunshine Coast Wanderers
Logan Lightning	1-4 L	2-2 D
Brisbane Strikers	0-1 L	0-2 L
Caboolture FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Robina City	0-2 L	0-0 D
Capalaba FC	2-0 W	5-0 W
North Star	2-0 W	1-0 W
Holland Park Hawks	1-2 L	2-3 L
Broadbeach United	1-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sunshine Coast Wanderers (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St George Willawong FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	1-2	1-4	8	0	L
02/08	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
18/07	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	8	W
11/07	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
04/07	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
27/06	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
19/06	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
13/06	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	1-4	1	3	L
07/06	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
03/06	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-3	0-8	7	1	L

Sunshine Coast Wanderers

LWWWDWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	2-1	10	0	W
01/08	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
18/07	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
12/07	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
03/07	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	6	W
27/06	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
20/06	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	5-0	8	3	W
06/06	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
03/06	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	3-0	8-0	8	1	W
23/05	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-3	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St George Willawong FC vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sunshine Coast Wanderers win (58%). Probabilities: St George Willawong FC 20%, draw 22%, Sunshine Coast Wanderers 58%.

How many goals are expected in St George Willawong FC vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers?

The model expects 3.11 goals (St George Willawong FC 1.11 · Sunshine Coast Wanderers 2.01), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in St George Willawong FC vs Sunshine Coast Wanderers?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.