Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 15/08, 08:15
Prediction: North Star vs Caboolture FC
Team pages: North Star · Caboolture FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.28Total
North Star1.48
Caboolture FC1.8
1X2
North Star
Draw
Caboolture FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
North Star
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Caboolture FC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
North Star
2–1–3
Caboolture FC
(6 last)
- Caboolture FC2-3North Star
- Caboolture FC3-1North Star
- Caboolture FC2-3North Star
- Caboolture FC2-0North Star
- North Star1-1Caboolture FC
- Caboolture FC3-1North Star
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · North Star 1470 · Caboolture FC 1479
| North Star | Draw | Caboolture FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Market | 33% | 21% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Caboolture FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Star | Caboolture FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.2 | 1.5 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Star 2–1–3 Caboolture FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League | Caboolture FC | 2-3 HT 0-1 | North Star |
| 03/10/21 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Caboolture FC | 3-1 HT 2-0 | North Star |
| 25/09/21 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Caboolture FC | 2-3 HT 2-0 | North Star |
| 26/06/21 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Caboolture FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | North Star |
| 20/06/21 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | North Star | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Caboolture FC |
| 24/10/20 Australia Brisbane Premier League | Caboolture FC | 3-1 HT 1-1 | North Star |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 50 | 15 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 50 | 20 | 49 |
| 3 | Ipswich FC | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 35 | 29 | 35 |
| 4 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 40 | 27 | 34 |
| 5 | Caboolture FC | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 36 | 31 |
| 6 | Robina City | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 28 | 29 |
| 7 | Logan Lightning | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 39 | 27 |
| 8 | Redlands United | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 38 | 27 |
| 9 | Holland Park Hawks | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 46 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 40 | 18 |
| 11 | St George Willawong FC | 21 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 46 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 20 | 55 | 11 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Star | Caboolture FC |
|---|---|---|
| Capalaba FC | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Ipswich FC | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Holland Park Hawks | 0-0 D | 7-2 W |
| Redlands United | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| St George Willawong FC | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Broadbeach United | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Brisbane Strikers | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 6 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Caboolture FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Star
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 31/07 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 10/07 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/06 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 26/05 | Gold Coast United Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Caboolture FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
4-2 | 7-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 15/07 | Brisbane Roar Australia Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 03/07 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 06/06 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Star vs Caboolture FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Caboolture FC win (45%). Probabilities: North Star 32%, draw 23%, Caboolture FC 45%.
How many goals are expected in North Star vs Caboolture FC?
The model expects 3.28 goals (North Star 1.48 · Caboolture FC 1.8), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in North Star vs Caboolture FC?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.