Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 15/08, 08:15

Prediction: Redlands United vs Logan Lightning

Team pages: Redlands United · Logan Lightning

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

Redlands United1.87

Logan Lightning1.87

1X2

39% 23% 39%

Redlands United Draw Logan Lightning

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Redlands United 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWDDDL

Logan Lightning 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWDLW

Head-to-head

Redlands United 1–1–4 Logan Lightning (6 last)

Logan Lightning5-1Redlands United
Logan Lightning3-1Redlands United
Redlands United0-7Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning3-3Redlands United
Logan Lightning2-3Redlands United
Redlands United0-4Logan Lightning

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Redlands United 1520 · Logan Lightning 1491

	Redlands United	Draw	Logan Lightning
Our model	38%	23%	38%
Market	39%	22%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Logan Lightning: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Redlands United	Logan Lightning
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.3	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	1.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
04:15 +20’	2.30	4.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Redlands United 1–1–4 Logan Lightning

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/06/26 Australia Queensland Premier League	Logan Lightning	5-1 HT 3-1	Redlands United
19/07/25 Australia Queensland Premier League	Logan Lightning	3-1 HT 1-1	Redlands United
28/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League	Redlands United	0-7 HT 0-3	Logan Lightning
20/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying	Logan Lightning	3-3 HT 3-2	Redlands United
05/09/21 Australia NPL Queensland	Logan Lightning	2-3 HT 0-1	Redlands United
22/05/21 Australia NPL Queensland	Redlands United	0-4 HT 0-2	Logan Lightning

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brisbane Strikers	21	17	3	1	50	15	54
2	Broadbeach United	21	15	4	2	50	20	49
3	Ipswich FC	21	10	5	6	35	29	35
4	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	21	9	7	5	40	27	34
5	Caboolture FC	21	9	4	8	44	36	31
6	Robina City	21	8	5	8	34	28	29
7	Logan Lightning	21	8	3	10	39	39	27
8	Redlands United	21	7	6	8	38	38	27
9	Holland Park Hawks	21	8	3	10	37	46	27
10	North Star	21	5	3	13	20	40	18
11	St George Willawong FC	21	4	1	16	12	46	13
12	Capalaba FC	21	3	2	16	20	55	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Redlands United	Logan Lightning
Brisbane Strikers	0-3 L	2-3 L
Caboolture FC	2-2 D	1-3 L
Robina City	1-1 D	0-1 L
Capalaba FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Holland Park Hawks	4-1 W	2-3 L
Ipswich FC	5-0 W	3-2 W
St George Willawong FC	3-0 W	4-1 W
Broadbeach United	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Redlands United (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Redlands United

LWWWLWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
01/08	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-2	2-2	8	4	D
19/07	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
11/07	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-1	10	4	D
04/07	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
30/06	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	1-3	1-5	0	2	L
26/06	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	3-0	4-1	3	4	W
20/06	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	5-0	7	5	W
07/06	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
23/05	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	0	L

Logan Lightning

WLLLWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	2-1	4-1	2	0	W
31/07	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
18/07	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
11/07	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	3-2	4	1	W
04/07	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-3	9	3	L
30/06	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	3-1	5-1	2	2	W
27/06	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	1-3	11	2	L
23/06	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	0-2	2-3	7	1	L
20/06	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
05/06	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Redlands United vs Logan Lightning?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Redlands United win (39%). Probabilities: Redlands United 39%, draw 23%, Logan Lightning 39%.

How many goals are expected in Redlands United vs Logan Lightning?

The model expects 3.74 goals (Redlands United 1.87 · Logan Lightning 1.87), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Redlands United vs Logan Lightning?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.