Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 15/08, 08:15

Prediction: Capalaba FC vs Robina City

Team pages: Capalaba FC · Robina City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Capalaba FC1.01

Robina City1.94

1X2

19% 22% 59%

Capalaba FC Draw Robina City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Capalaba FC 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Robina City 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Capalaba FC 0–1 Robina City (1 last)

Robina City5-1Capalaba FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Capalaba FC 1409 · Robina City 1518

	Capalaba FC	Draw	Robina City
Our model	18%	24%	58%
Market	20%	20%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Robina City (rating 1409 vs 1518).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Capalaba FC	Robina City
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.3	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.2	3.7 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.50

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.82

2 (-1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +20’	4.50	4.50	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Capalaba FC 0–0–1 Robina City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/06/26 Australia Queensland Premier League	Robina City	5-1 HT 4-1	Capalaba FC

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brisbane Strikers	21	17	3	1	50	15	54
2	Broadbeach United	21	15	4	2	50	20	49
3	Ipswich FC	21	10	5	6	35	29	35
4	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	21	9	7	5	40	27	34
5	Caboolture FC	21	9	4	8	44	36	31
6	Robina City	21	8	5	8	34	28	29
7	Logan Lightning	21	8	3	10	39	39	27
8	Redlands United	21	7	6	8	38	38	27
9	Holland Park Hawks	21	8	3	10	37	46	27
10	North Star	21	5	3	13	20	40	18
11	St George Willawong FC	21	4	1	16	12	46	13
12	Capalaba FC	21	3	2	16	20	55	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Capalaba FC	Robina City
Ipswich FC	0-3 L	1-0 W
North Star	0-1 L	0-1 L
Holland Park Hawks	3-0 W	3-6 L
Redlands United	1-1 D	1-1 D
St George Willawong FC	0-2 L	2-0 W
Broadbeach United	1-3 L	0-0 D
Sunshine Coast Wanderers	0-5 L	0-0 D
Logan Lightning	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Robina City (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Capalaba FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-3	4	1	L
31/07	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
19/07	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
11/07	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
04/07	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
27/06	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-2	1-3	3	2	L
23/06	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	1-4	1-5	4	4	L
20/06	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-5	4	3	L
05/06	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
30/05	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	4	L

Robina City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
01/08	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	3-2	3-6	5	4	L
19/07	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	1-1	13	6	D
11/07	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
04/07	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
27/06	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/06	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	4-1	5-1	8	4	W
20/06	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
13/06	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
09/06	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Capalaba FC vs Robina City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Robina City win (59%). Probabilities: Capalaba FC 19%, draw 22%, Robina City 59%.

How many goals are expected in Capalaba FC vs Robina City?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Capalaba FC 1.01 · Robina City 1.94), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Capalaba FC vs Robina City?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.