Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 09/08, 08:00

Prediction: North Star vs Robina City

Team pages: North Star · Robina City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

North Star1.13

Robina City1.52

1X2

28% 26% 46%

North Star Draw Robina City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

North Star 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLDLW

Robina City 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDDWDL

Head-to-head

North Star 0–2–2 Robina City (4 last)

Robina City3-1North Star
Robina City0-0North Star
North Star1-1Robina City
Robina City3-1North Star

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · North Star 1425 · Robina City 1542

	North Star	Draw	Robina City
Our model	27%	28%	45%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Robina City (rating 1425 vs 1542).
H2H favours Robina City: 2-2-0.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	North Star	Robina City
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.2	3.2 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.75

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.91 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:49 +1’	3.10	3.75	1.91
16:21 +1’	3.20▲	3.75	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · North Star 0–2–2 Robina City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League	Robina City	3-1 HT 2-0	North Star
06/09/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2	Robina City	0-0 HT 0-0	North Star
09/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2	North Star	1-1 HT 1-0	Robina City
09/07/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2	Robina City	3-1 HT 2-0	North Star

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brisbane Strikers	20	16	3	1	47	15	51
2	Broadbeach United	20	15	4	1	49	18	49
3	Ipswich FC	20	9	5	6	32	29	32
4	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	20	8	7	5	38	26	31
5	Robina City	20	8	5	7	34	27	29
6	Caboolture FC	20	8	4	8	37	34	28
7	Redlands United	20	7	6	7	38	35	27
8	Holland Park Hawks	20	8	3	9	35	39	27
9	Logan Lightning	20	7	3	10	35	38	24
10	North Star	20	4	3	13	19	40	15
11	St George Willawong FC	20	4	1	15	11	42	13
12	Capalaba FC	20	3	2	15	20	52	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	North Star	Robina City
Capalaba FC	1-0 W	5-1 W
Ipswich FC	2-3 L	1-0 W
Holland Park Hawks	0-0 D	3-6 L
Redlands United	1-2 L	1-1 D
St George Willawong FC	0-2 L	2-0 W
Broadbeach United	1-3 L	0-0 D
Sunshine Coast Wanderers	0-1 L	0-0 D
Brisbane Strikers	1-3 L	0-3 L
Logan Lightning	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 7 L	4 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Robina City (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

North Star

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	1-0	13	2	W
18/07	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	2-3	9	3	L
10/07	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
04/07	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
27/06	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
20/06	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-3	1-3	5	3	L
06/06	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
02/06	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-2	1-3	5	9	L
26/05	Gold Coast United Australia Cup Qualifying	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
23/05	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	1-3	5	3	L

Robina City

LWWWWDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	3-2	3-6	5	4	L
19/07	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	1-1	13	6	D
11/07	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
04/07	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
27/06	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/06	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	4-1	5-1	8	4	W
20/06	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
13/06	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
09/06	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/06	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in North Star vs Robina City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Robina City win (46%). Probabilities: North Star 28%, draw 26%, Robina City 46%.

How many goals are expected in North Star vs Robina City?

The model expects 2.65 goals (North Star 1.13 · Robina City 1.52), with a 58% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in North Star vs Robina City?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.